Antonio is Head of US Rates Strategy at Macro Hive, focusing on the US economy and rates markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a Master in Finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a Master in Economics from Bocconi University.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | UK
Antonio Del Favero
Key Points We posted this preview ahead of the BoE meeting in the Bloomberg chat. The meeting went broadly as we expected. 1. BoE to leave rates at 4% with a hawkish 7-2 split (i.e., 8-1 is more likely than 7-1-1 or 7-3). Taylor will vote for a cut. Dhingra is the wildcard. The rest […]
Antonio Del Favero, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Richard Jones
Summary Our base case is no cut, but the Fed takes note of the greater downside risks to growth and signals it will remain well-positioned to address either leg of its mandate. Fed slows quantitative tightening (QT) to ease the funding strains emerging in the RP market. Despite low PCE and negative GDP, we think […]
Antonio Del Favero, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Richard Jones
Summary Our base case is no major changes in the dots, economic projections, or during the presser. The first paragraph in the statement could be updated to reflect recent economic developments. We think the longer-run dot will increase marginally from 3.0% to 3.1%. Market Implications We expect some rates selloff and bear flattening, alongside equity […]
Antonio Del Favero, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Richard Jones, Sam van de Schootbrugge
Market Pricing The market is pricing a 29% probability of a Fed cut in March and two cuts by 2025. UST Market Technicals A fortnight ago, our US Rates Technical Report (USRTR) showed technicals across the curve were oversold in all the UST futures contracts. Yesterday’s USRTR showed technicals are now a lot cleaner than […]
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