Antonio is Head of US Rates Strategy at Macro Hive, focusing on the US economy and rates markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a Master in Finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a Master in Economics from Bocconi University.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Antonio Del Favero, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Richard Jones
Summary Our base case is no major changes in the dots, economic projections, or during the presser. The first paragraph in the statement could be updated to reflect recent economic developments. We think the longer-run dot will increase marginally from 3.0% to 3.1%. Market Implications We expect some rates selloff and bear flattening, alongside equity […]
Antonio Del Favero, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Richard Jones, Sam van de Schootbrugge
Market Pricing The market is pricing a 29% probability of a Fed cut in March and two cuts by 2025. UST Market Technicals A fortnight ago, our US Rates Technical Report (USRTR) showed technicals across the curve were oversold in all the UST futures contracts. Yesterday’s USRTR showed technicals are now a lot cleaner than […]
Antonio Del Favero
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could DOGE Do the Impossible? In FY2024, total US government spending was $6.75tn against a total revenue of $4.92tn, resulting […]
Antonio Del Favero
Summary US monetary policy (MP) does not look that restrictive, and financial conditions (FCs) are supporting labour market and economic growth. While the mistakes of the great inflation have been avoided, core inflation will struggle to return to target. The Fed and markets are still too optimistic about cuts. The election outcome could just mean […]
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