"One of the biggest problems facing investors is the sheer quantity of research. That's where Macro Hive comes in. It’s a service that finds great researchers, sifts through macro research from around the web and academic world, and showcases only the best content. It will provide a platform for top researchers to get their work better known. "
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) appears to have delivered a key message: rates will have to rise. Yet UK interest rate markets are pricing a 20% chance of a 25bp rate cut by January 2020, and an
Over the past week, we’ve seen a raft of US activity data for May. Manufacturing PMIs surveys (ISM and Markit) were weak, and so was labour market data. Services PMI data were mixed (ISM up, Markit down). Small business sentiment
A combination of disappointing US jobs and inflation data, dovish Fed comments, and concerns over trade deals has brought Fed rate cut expectations into upcoming FOMC meetings. The next meeting in June has a small probability of rate cut priced-in,
Quantitative Styles and Multi-Sector Bonds A high-level summary of trading model returns in fixed incomes. The author looks at various trading models including carry, momentum and valuation. They find that carry, short-term momentum and long-term reversals (mean-reversion) work well across fixed income markets.
Tech and Antitrust Very good analysis arguing that today’s platform tech companies like Google and Facebook aren’t like conventional monopolies. One reason is that competition for (say) Google is just one click away (Bing or DuckDuckGo). The article makes comparisons between today’s tech companies and 1990s Microsoft.
Europe Must Fix Its Fiscal Rules Former chief economist of IMF, Oliver Blanchard, argues in an environment of persistently low interest rates and below-potential output, European policymakers need to rethink their attitude to public debt. This means creating a common budget, or at least overhauling the fiscal rules that have tied member-state governments’ hands for no good reason.
For party voting preference, which is more important, age or education? Looks like we have an answer Higher education leads to voting Democrat, ageing leads to voting Republican. Of the two effects, age dominates.
Unconventional Thinking about Unconventional Monetary Policies Barry Eichengreen argues that political interference is even likelier if central banks shun QE in the next recession.
The Traditional Active Manager That’s Raking in Assets Article profiles a US active manager that has attracted $45bn in new assets over the last two years. Its secret? Specialising in liability-driven investing and derivatives-heavy de-risking strategies favoured by corporate pension plans.
China to boost social credit system with new market regulatory measures China’s social credit system which amongst other things rewards and penalises acts of good or bad faith will now be extended to the business sector. Very Orwellian.
TRADE WAR: China’s People’s Daily: Op-ed-Tariff hikes are ‘bricks’ escalating tensions rather than ‘ladders’ leading to solution. It opens with a Milton Friedman(!) quote: “The most effective protection to a consumer is free competition at home and free trade throughout the world,” and goes on to attack the use of tariffs in trade policy. Worth reading with the US response this tougher China stance U.S. Trade Representative and the U.S. Department of Treasury respond to the “White Paper” issued by China
Inside Huawei’s secretive plans to develop an operating system to rival Google’s Android The OS issue took an extra urgency after the US government in mid-May placed Huawei and its affiliates on a trade blacklist. One of the biggest technical challenges for the Huawei OS under development has been its compatibility with Android.(more…)
I’ve paired these podcasts to provide context for the recent HK protests. The first, Why Hong Kong Is Still Protesting (The Daily, 23 min), runs through the events that led to approximately one in seven Hong Kong residents protesting in the streets this past weekend. It started a year ago, with an incident in Taiwan that led to the need for an extradition treaty between HK and Taiwan. This, in turn, resulted in a wholesale review of HK’s extradition treaties with all countries including China. Hong Kong residents see an extradition treaty with China as a loss of independence and have reacted with protests.
The parallels with the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 bring us to the second podcast, which features an interview with one of the now exiled student leaders of the Tiananmen protests: A student leader 30 years after Tiananmen: Wu’er Kaixi reflects on the movement (Sinica, 1hr 22 min). The first hour of the podcast describes the lead up to the protests. One point stands out in particular: the Chinese student protesters took much inspiration from other democratic movements of the time, such as Poland’s Solidarity movement and Gorbachev’s perestroika and glasnost reforms. One difference today, then, is that the international trend is if anything towards more authoritarianism, rather than liberal democracy, so there may be less international inspiration to sustain the latest protests.(more…)
Freshly Squeezed Working Papers
Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: What Explains Corporate Bond Returns? AQR paper finds finds that options markets explain a great deal of credit returns. Two features of corporate bonds
The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound San Fran Fed writes “that there currently appears to be a low risk of the economy returning to the zero lower bound
Negative interest rates, excess liquidity and retail deposits: banks’ reaction to unconventional monetary policy in the euro area ECB finds that negative rates actually do promote loan growth contrary to