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23 more countries have reported cases for the first time over the past week. As we predicted, European cases are starting reach levels seen in Asia, notably Italy has overtaken China (as share of population). The US continues to lag, though more and more states are reporting cases.
Traffic
We’re now tracking Milan traffic as well as some Chinese cities. There appears to be some drop-off in Milan traffic (Chart 1). Wuhan remains at a standstill (Chart 2). Shanghai and other cities appear to be normalising outside of weekends (Chart 3).
Chart 1: Milan Traffic
Chart 2: Wuhan Traffic
Chart 3: Shanghai Traffic
Europe and US breakdown
Washington state continues to report cases, and now has comparable population-adjusted numbers as Spain and Germany (Charts 4 and 6). New York, New Hampshire and Oregon appear to be the next break-out states.
Italy now has a larger share of its population with confirmed cases than China and approaching Korea levels (Chart 5). France, Germany and Spain are reaching Singapore levels. The UK is further behind and has only reached Japan levels (which in itself seems too low). The US continues to lag (Chart 6).
Chart 4: US States: Confirmed COVID Cases as Share of Population
Source: John Hopkins CSSE
Charts 5 & 6
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Global Cases
• Egypt and Saudi have seen a surge in case over the past week. Numerous smaller European countries and Argentina are also seeing faster growth (Table 1).
• 23 new countries have reported cases for the first time, including the Vatican, Maldives and Palestine. Colombia and South Africa have finally reported cases (Table 2)
• Turkey remains the only major country not to have reported. (Table 3)
Table 1: Countries With Largest Increases in COVID-19 Cases
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Table 2: New Countries With COVID-19 Cases
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Table 3: Major Countries Yet to Report Case
Source: John Hopkins CSSE, Macro Hive
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
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