Bilal Hafeez, Sam van de Schootbrugge, Eric Wang
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional […]
Bilal Hafeez
I am an avid movie fan, and the last 15 years have been rough. We have endured the Marvel juggernaut trampling over creativity, and since COVID, the cinema experience has been dismal – half-empty theatres, messy environments, and barely any good films. But that might be about to change. We are facing recession fears, […]
Richard Jones
Summary US short-end yields have been wild this month, with prices rallying and sliding with every White House policy zigzag. The 2-yr US Treasury (UST) yield is now very near the middle of April’s MTD range (~3.65%/~3.95%). Technicals on US short-end futures contracts are neutral, very near the middle of the 30 (oversold)/70 (overbought) RSI […]
Bilal Hafeez
You may think the world is in turmoil today, but the 1300s and 1400s were far worse. Half of England’s population was wiped out by the plague (Black Death), there was a popular uprising over inequality and corruption (the Peasants’ Revolt), and the prevailing ideology of the day, Christianity, was fracturing – with two popes […]
Bilal Hafeez
Obsessing over the next hour’s move in markets can make us lose sight of the big picture – and what bigger question is there than what ends a dominant civilisation? Historians have debated this for centuries. But to avoid getting bogged down in endless two-sided arguments, I find Arnold Toynbee’s view in his epic ‘A […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/CAD is down for the sixth successive week, and for the eighth week in ten. The pair printed a new YTD low this week, where it currently trades. USD/CAD is approaching its 200-day moving average (DMA), very near 1.4000. Market Implications We think the 200-DMA should robustly support USD/CAD and with an RSI approaching […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/USD is up ~6% so far year-to-date (YTD). The pair hovers about one percentage point off its YTD high seen yesterday, having gained about 1.5% this week ahead of the US jobs report and Powell’s speech later today. Technicals show EUR/USD as overbought in the near-term, coinciding with CTAs ramping up EUR/USD long positioning. […]
Richard Jones
Summary On 14 February, the US Treasury (UST) 2-year, 10-year, and the 30-year yields were at ~4.30%, ~4.5% and 4.70%, respectively. Back then, we thought UST yields would trade within the YTD ranges established at that time. UST yields then plummeted to new YTD lows and have now bounced. Market Implications We think that there […]
Dalvir Mandara, Eric Wang, Bilal Hafeez
Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Inference-time scaling is the New Frontier: AI progress is shifting to focus more on inference-time scaling techniques that refine responses after initial training. Deeper Reasoning, Longer Waits: Enabling models to break complex tasks into smaller steps during inference results in longer waiting times but better responses. Better Cost-Outcome Alignment: This approach better aligns cost […]
Richard Jones
Summary The USD index (DXY) is rising this week, for only the second week in seven. DXY technicals were oversold, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has partly unwound. Room exists for RSIs to unwind slightly higher in the coming days. Long and short USD exposures are not crowded. This clean positioning means chances of […]
Richard Jones
Summary The USD Index (DXY) traded 3.5% lower last week – its worst week since November 2022. DXY is trading slightly higher this week, with the index down for six of the past nine weeks. A key DXY technical indicator, the RSI, is turning from being oversold. Market Implications With the technicals turning, we think […]
Bilal Hafeez
Assessing and Alleviating State Anxiety in LLMs: Finds that trauma prompts can change the ‘state’ anxiety of LLMs, while relaxation ones reduce anxiety! Structured Outputs Enable General-Purpose LLMs to Be Medical Experts: The paper does away with fine-tuning an LLM on medical data and instead introduces a seven-step cognitive process (chain-of-thought) to answer questions. E.g., […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Despite significant strides in speed, cost, intelligence, and multi-modal capabilities, AI has yet to move from testing to widespread adoption. Key barriers to adoption include hallucinations, limited memory, reliance on good prompts, and poor real-world adaptability. For AI to deliver real business value, there must be a shift in focus from just improving models […]
Richard Jones
Summary President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods this week, although a one-month exemption has been granted for the auto industry. USD/CAD rose on the news but is now lower on the week. This is partly because of the prospect of the auto exemption, but also on broader USD weakness. The US-Canada […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/CAD has been on a roller coaster ride so far this month, peaking just below 1.4800 on 3 February, and troughing at 1.4150 on 14 February (both intraday). The pair now trades at ~1.4440, near the middle of its year-to-date (YTD) range. After a one-month deferral on 4 February, President Donald Trump says 25% […]
Richard Jones
Summary UK gilt yields have risen across the curve in the past two weeks. Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey downplayed any inflation rise, instead focusing on the UK’s weak growth environment and accelerating disinflation. Momentum players have increased UK gilts bearishness. Market Implications We think the rise in gilt yields presents an opportunity […]
Bilal Hafeez
If you spend time on X or Twitter, you would think the release of Grok 3.0 and ChatGPT’s DeepResearch models marks the dawn of superintelligence (AGI). In reality, these advances highlight the limitations of large language models (LLMs) and how far we still are from AGI. At their core, these models are only as good […]
Richard Jones
Summary Roughly seven weeks into 2025, and the US treasury (UST) market has already established decent, tradable year-to-date (YTD) ranges. For 2-year, 10-year and 30-year UST yields, trade has been choppy but should now churn around within the YTD ranges into March. With tariffs set to start next month (or, for Canada and Mexico, additional […]
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