John Tierney
Summary The recent New York Community Bank (NYCB) blowup has brought renewed focus on bank exposure to commercial real estate (CRE). It is a potential problem – banks hold about 50% of CRE debt. Fortunately, the risk is distributed across some 5,000+ mostly small banks that serve local markets. More bank failures and mergers are […]
John Tierney
Because of ageing and disabilities, labour force participation is set to fall to 60% in coming years (from 62.8% currently). Absent offsetting growth in productivity, that will lead to slower GDP growth and tax revenue to address the aging problem
Sam van de Schootbrugge
The summer months are upon us. This means fewer office distractions and fewer short-term deadlines, creating the ideal opportunity for researchers to get stuck into meatier projects. In academia, this summer lull brings in a surge of publications in the months that follow (Chart 1).
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A Review of Financial Studies paper examines the pitfalls of mean-variance portfolio optimisation. It confirms a well-known result - historical sample moments are suboptimal proxies for true means and variances, and that optimisation methods estimating these past values have poor forecasting performance.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new paper in the highly rated Review of Financial Studies journal explains how momentum profits are strongly linked to the performance of winners and losers during the formation period.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A popular Swiss Financial Institute research paper, co-authored by UC Berkeley researchers, reveals the importance of following the right Twitter accounts.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new FEDS working paper uses Twitter chatter to build a measure of credit and financial market sentiment. The authors use Keyword Clustering alongside FinBERT to assign sentiment scores to tweets. They then average over tweets to create sentiment indices at different frequencies.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new CEPR working paper, co-authored by UCL Professor Stephen Hansen provides an overview of the methods used for algorithmic text analysis in economics.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new CEPR working paper, co-authored by UCL Professor Stephen Hansen provides an overview of the methods used for algorithmic text analysis in economics.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
An NBER working paper reviews the extensive literature on the measures, predictability and consequences of financial crises. It finds financial crises are predictable, non-random events forecastable 1-5 years ahead.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
In May 2022, we summarised an International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper that forecasted the impacts of supply-chain issues on inflation. Their analysis provided a good foundation for estimating the impact of rising global food prices.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A Federal Reserve Bank of New York paper examines the long-run returns on residential real estate in 15 countries over 150 years.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A Swiss Finance Institute research paper investigates the best variables for predicting US house prices. They asses the backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting abilities of over 70 macroeconomic and financial variables at low and high frequencies.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new European Central Bank (ECB) working paper estimates the impact of rising real rates on euro area house prices.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper, co-authored by researchers from Stanford and Columbia, analyses the US banking system’s exposure to rising interest rates.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new NBER working paper investigates the correlation between US macroeconomic data releases and foreign stock markets.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new European Central Bank (ECB) working paper estimates the impact of rising real rates on euro area house prices.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new European Central Bank (ECB) working paper estimates the impact of rising real rates on euro area house prices.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new Federal Reserve Bank of New York paper investigates the link between bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals.
Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…
Already have an account?…
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.