COVID Macro Risk Scorecard

In our macro scorecard, we pull together all our COVID-related data from cases/deaths to mobility and vaccination rollouts. Our overall score combines these values. The higher the score, the worse the combination.

Vaccination Update (Table 1, Chart 1):

• This week, an average of 17.7mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 10% WoW (Chart 1). European countries in particular performed well, although a larger share of North America’s population has been vaccinated over the week (Chart 2). In all, 5.8% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 4.9% last week, and an estimated 3.5% have immunity to Covid-19.
• Almost all countries expanded vaccination rollouts this week, with Israel, the UK, Turkey, Switzerland, Malaysia and South Africa being the only countries whose daily average doses fell WoW. The largest increases were in Thailand, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Russia. On a population-adjusted basis, Hungary is administering more doses per 100k than any other country on the list. Next is the US, followed by Chile.

Cases and Mobility Update (Chart 2-4):

• Weekly global COVID-19 infections have risen further – up 11% WoW to 3.2mn (Chart 2). Cases in India, Germany and Latin American countries increased most, while the UK and Israel experienced large WoW declines. Global COVID-19 deaths rose 25% WoW, and total deaths now stand at 2.97mn.
• Average mobility across DM economies fell 2.2% WoW. Mobility in Japan, France and Austria decreased most, while Portugal and Greece experienced WoW improvements (Chart 3). The US is the third most mobile country on our list, relative to January 2020, and mobility has risen further this week. The recent improvement is driven by a rise in mobility around Parks, Retail & Recreation and Transit (Chart 4).

Macro Risk Scorecard Update (Table 2, Charts 5 & 6):

• On the overall macro risk score, the largest WoW deteriorations were in Australia, Colombia and Thailand. The countries whose macro risk score has improved most are Indonesia, Singapore, and New Zealand.
• India and the Philippines registered the highest overall scores this week – that is, they had the worst combination of COVID cases/deaths, mobility and vaccination rollouts. India recorded over 1mn cases this week – the highest for the pandemic, up 70% WoW, and accounting for a third of global cases (Chart 5). Deaths are also up 61% WoW and mobility has fallen. Meanwhile, cases and mobility are unchanged in the Philippines, but deaths are up 135% WoW. On vaccinations, India had a strong week, vaccinating 1.7% of its population with at least one dose and administering 27.5mn doses in total.
• Turkey, Thailand, Colombia, Chile, and Canada are also all registering daily cases near the 100^th percentile for the pandemic. As a result, Colombia, Chile and Turkey are next highest on our macro risk scorecard. Mobility has fallen for all three countries and deaths are up by at least 25% WoW. Chile’s overall risk score is lower because of its strong vaccination performance. Turkey, however, was one of just a handful of countries this week to register a decline in daily doses administered.
• In the US, daily vaccinations topped 3mn again this week, up 5% WoW. However, cases and deaths are up 8% and 25% WoW, respectively. The EU risk score rose by 0.3 this week. Cases in Germany (58%), Spain (39%) and France (4%) rose WoW, and deaths increased in Italy as well (Chart 6). Meanwhile, all four countries had good vaccination performances over the last week, and Spain is now vaccinating at a quicker pace than the UK on a population-adjusted basis.

On market correlations:

• For G10+EM, our overall risk measure is correlating negatively with equity markets. That is, equities move higher with a better overall risk score. In particular, equities appear to be moving higher in countries with better vaccination rollouts per 100 people, higher Apple mobility and lower Covid cases/deaths. The same holds true for EM countries only.

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)