By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
July 01, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Data, Models & Market Infrastructure | Growth & Labour Market | US
July 01, 2020
A provocative new paper argues that US labour market data contains several biases that systematically understate the level of unemployment in the…
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
June 24, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Equities | Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation | Rates
June 24, 2020
The global economy’s problematic re-emergence from the Great Recession revived interest in Alvin Hansen’s 1939 secular stagnation hypothesis…
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
June 17, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
China & Hong Kong | Economics | FX
June 17, 2020
In 2016, the IMF included the Chinese renminbi (RMB) in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket with a weight of 10.9%. Prior to its inclusion, this…
By
Stefan Posea
June 10, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Economics | Fiscal Policy & Inequality
June 10, 2020
Demographics are a key driver of long-term macro trends. The link between changing demographics and wealth has significant implications for asset…
By
Stefan Posea
June 03, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
June 03, 2020
As central banks go deeper into unconventional policies, there is increasing speculation that more of them will engage in negative interest rates…
By
Mehdi Farooq
May 27, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
COVID-19 | Emerging Markets | Geopolitics | Sustainability & Social Issues
May 27, 2020
When President Trump suggests that injecting disinfectant could cure COVID-19 both health experts and the disinfectant manufacturers quickly came…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
May 27, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
COVID-19 | Economics
May 27, 2020
Most of the discussion on the economic impact of COVID-19 has focused on demand destruction. Yet two recent academic papers…
By
Caroline Grady
May 20, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
May 20, 2020
Central bank bond buying has accelerated at an unprecedented pace during the COVID crisis. The impact of large asset purchases on home markets…
By
Justin Stebbing
May 13, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
COVID-19
May 13, 2020
Imperial Professor, Justin Stebbing, summarises some new research on the impact of COVID on children. Looks like they could be affected after all…
By
John Tierney
May 06, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
COVID-19 | Equities | Growth & Labour Market
May 06, 2020
The coronavirus crisis may seem to have dragged on for an age, but the reality is that the initial shock hit markets and most economies less than 2½…
By
Caroline Grady
April 29, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Economics | Sustainability & Social Issues
April 29, 2020
Governments worldwide are facing tough decisions on how to ease lockdown restrictions. Given the trade-off between the spread of the virus and…
By
Mehdi Farooq
April 22, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Economics | Monetary Policy & Inflation
April 22, 2020
As the fight against COVID-19 continues, we ask: what lessons from war mobilisation can be employed to fight pandemics? Looking at…
By
Stefan Posea
April 15, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
COVID-19 | Equities
April 15, 2020
COVID-related social distancing measures have impacted most businesses but not equally. A recent CEPR paper attempts to model business sectors…
By
Stefan Posea
April 08, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
COVID-19 | Equities
April 08, 2020
One of the most interesting academic papers on pandemics is a new NBER paper on COVID (and SARS) case predictions and stock market returns…
By
Bilal Hafeez
April 08, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
COVID-19 | Monetary Policy & Inflation
April 08, 2020
There’s been a number of recent papers on the impact of pandemics on economies. A Fed paper looks directly at pandemics going back…
By
Mehdi Farooq
Abdul Akram
April 01, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Economics | Growth & Labour Market
April 01, 2020
COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on our lives, health, and the economy. Given the global scale of action to combat the virus, it’s no far stretch to equate the…
By
C. B. Anker
March 26, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
March 26, 2020
This piece is written by someone who has built DSGE models at various central banks. They prefer to write anonymously: Having read the recently…
By
Mehdi Farooq
March 25, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Data, Models & Market Infrastructure | Economics
March 25, 2020
DSGE models were bashed during the Great Recession for their inability to foresee the crisis. Yet, they are still central banks’ go-to macroeconomic tool…
By
Thorsten Wegener
March 18, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation
March 18, 2020
Is there a concept to approach ‘Peak Volatility’? And if not, why not? No, I am not mixing my words up over recent, let’s politely call it erratic, market…
By
Thorsten Wegener
March 18, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Equities | Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation
March 18, 2020
My wife is an ardent fan of the Macro Hive WhatsApp group. It’s got some very bright minds exchanging ideas and analysing the daily happenings in…
By
Mehdi Farooq
March 11, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Sustainability & Social Issues | US
March 11, 2020
Social distancing is currently considered one of the most effective mechanisms to control COVID-19. But what can history tell us about how well this type…
By
Bilal Hafeez
March 04, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Business & Technology | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
March 04, 2020
Forecasting financial crises is difficult. The data comprises a limited set of observed instances and signals a warning only when it is already too late…
By
Thorsten Wegener
February 26, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Equities | Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation
February 26, 2020
Some months back I published an article explaining the so-called Gamma-Flip. It was just when it became fashionable to use terms firmly anchored in…
By
Mehdi Farooq
February 26, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Credit | Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
February 26, 2020
When the US economy sneezes, every other country catches a cold. Many investors have long felt this, and in recent years academics have provided…
By
Siddharth Latwal
February 19, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation
February 19, 2020
Countless disclaimers tell us that “past performance is no guide to future performance”, but in mutual funds, many investors think it is. And not only…
By
Manan Shah
February 19, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
FX
February 19, 2020
The FX markets are the largest financial markets in the world with an average daily trading volume of over $6 trillion. The trading volume in FX swaps…
By
Stefan Posea
February 12, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates
February 12, 2020
In the last two decades, central banks have significantly increased communication towards the public in the form of speeches, reports, press…
By
Apurv Jain
Neil Seeman
February 05, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Data, Models & Market Infrastructure
February 05, 2020
Imagine you are the CEO of a well-known asset management company. You are sitting in a meeting with a new data vendor, your new…
