Henry Occleston
Summary With no presser and no update to forecasts, the BoE’s policy announcement is unlikely to be eventful. While cracks continue growing in the UK economy, data has not derailed sufficiently enough for the BoE to change tack. We expect inflation to roughly align with May’s MPR: headline below consensus but core higher. We analyse […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Following below-expectations CPI and above-expectations jobless claims, I now expect next week’s 2025 and 2026 dots to show two cuts each, from one and three cuts in my Fed preview. It is too early for the FOMC to form a view on the impact on the outlook of Israel’s most recent attack on Iran. […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Since May’s FOMC, soft data weaknesses have started transmitting to hard data and the impact of tariffs on inflation has been limited, though it is early days. FOMC members’ overall objective is to prevent a de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations and a permanent inflation increase. The SEP is likely to still show a soft-landing […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The ECB cut 25bp as expected. The presser was more hawkish, especially around comments that they are ‘in a good place’ after the cut. This and the updated dovish forecasts suggests room for the economy to outperform, further quashing need for another cut. However, we are wary that their assumptions on tariffs look optimistic. […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Governor Macklem executed a dovish hold during yesterday’s BoC meeting. Three themes emerged during the presser: Uncertainty is weighing on Canada’s economy. Inflation remains too high. A cut and a pause were discussed, with inflation data leading to a pause. Market Implications We believe the BoC will next cut its policy rate in July. […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The ECB will likely cut rates by 25bp this week given trade tensions and the recent CPI miss. While the doves will hold the reins near term, pushbacks should begin to grow. Updated medium-term forecasts must contend with low productivity growth, labour market tightness and rising fiscal spending. We do not think the ECB […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary May’s labour data showed further loosening with the unemployment rate rising to 6.9%. However, this data was overshadowed by hotter inflation and consumption data. While one-offs have mostly driven inflation higher, core inflation above 3.5% remains too hot to allow the BoC to cut further. Falling household savings suggest consumers are loosening their belts […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Post-‘Liberation Day’ inflation and available hard economic data have been soft. Policy uncertainty has fallen but remains high. Inflation expectations have fallen or remain consistent with the 2% Fed target. The Fed has turned hawkish, possibly due to limited post-tariff data availability and to a perceived need to assert its independence. With data softness […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE cut 25bp as expected. Pill’s backing for a pause was an unexpectedly hawkish surprise. So too was Bailey’s comment that the decision among centrists was a coinflip until the tariff announcement. We retain our central case that they skip cutting in June but will have the evidence needed to accelerate cuts from […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the MPC to cut 25bp this week, with Dhingra and possibly Taylor backing a larger cut. Forecasts are likely to be more dovish on tariffs, low energy costs and undershooting wage growth. This and broader tariff uncertainty will add to a dovish tone in the statement – but we do not expect […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB will cut 25bp this week, in line with consensus. For now, tariffs are dominating all else. In our view, the hawks are overly sanguine about inflation returning sustainably to target. However, hawkishness may not gain traction near-term given tariff fears and suppressed energy prices. The labour market continues to tighten […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary We think the BoC will remain on hold tomorrow. Since the last meeting, reciprocal tariffs have impacted Canada less, while core inflation has crept above 3% YoY. Given recent CAD appreciation, further labour market weakness and the potentially smaller hit to inflation, there may be more focus on Canada’s growth outlook in the months […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE’s March meeting aligned with our expectation, albeit with less dovish voting. We read little into this. The bar is high for data to prevent quarterly cuts. However, by August, we expect fiscal tightening, labour market loosening and soft core services inflation will push the BoE to accelerate cuts. February inflation will struggle […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Fed remained on hold and kept two 2025 cuts in the SEP as I expected. Powell’s growth views were ambiguous as he appeared less pessimistic than the SEP. Powell’s base case is for the tariffs inflation impact to prove transitory, though he stressed uncertainty was unusually high. The FOMC policy consensus grew stronger […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Governor Ueda struck a balanced tone at the BoJ press conference, highlighting both growth risks from tariffs and inflation risks from food prices and wages. The BoJ sees a low risk of falling behind the curve on inflation, with the next rate hike likely in June/July, while emphasising short/medium-term rates remain ‘deeply negative’. Wage […]
Antonio Del Favero, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Richard Jones
Summary Our base case is no major changes in the dots, economic projections, or during the presser. The first paragraph in the statement could be updated to reflect recent economic developments. We think the longer-run dot will increase marginally from 3.0% to 3.1%. Market Implications We expect some rates selloff and bear flattening, alongside equity […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Recent data has been mixed, preventing the BoJ taking a more hawkish tone than January. Food prices and wage growth have been higher than expected but may be negated by rising tariff tensions and weak consumption. We expect Ueda to strike a cautious tone as he waits for more clarity on trade tensions and […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the BoE to leave the bank rate unchanged at 4.5%, with Dhingra, Taylor and Mann voting for another cut. We would be unsurprised if Mann backed another 50bp cut: our BoE LLM sentiment index supports her fear that transmission to financial conditions has weakened. The minutes will indicate whether this view has […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary A surge in policy uncertainty is starting to undermine growth while inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. On the eve of the pre-meeting blackout, with the SPX already down 6%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a continuation of the Fed’s wait and see stance. Market Implications I still expect no cuts in 2025 […]
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