Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: Inauguration – Monday. Reports suggest up to 100 day-one executive orders. Key ones include tariffs, but the incoming administration has skilfully prepared the markets and plans a gradual and predictable phase in. This could be dollar negative. S&P PMIS – Friday. These are more trading […]
Bilal Hafeez
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank.
Bilal Hafeez
I recently gave a Harvard lecture weighing up private and public markets. You can find the slides below!
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Despite the downside surprise in December’s core CPI, inflation risks are tilted to the upside: Survey based inflation expectations are rising or stable but high. Inflation trends are stable and high. Evidence exists of cost pressures. Domestic demand pressures are pulling up inflation, though this seems offset, so far, by weak worker bargaining power. […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Relative to end-2024, banks reserves are up about $100bn. This reflects the reinstatement of the debt ceiling on 1 January, which forces the Treasury to run down its balance at the Treasury to fund the deficit. The reserves increase likely will not last as January tends to be a cash surplus month for the […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Much higher than expected NFP and other data sources show still-strong labour demand. By contrast, labour supply seems to be peaking and will likely suffer from fewer migrants under the incoming administration. Various indicators point to an already tight labour market, with signs the economy could be running out of easily employable workers. While […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is twofold: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expectations, 0.2% MoM for core, align with recent ranges. Together with Tuesday’s PPI, CPI will provide the December core PCE estimate, which is a key driver of Fed policymaking. Retail Sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (key input […]
Bilal Hafeez
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Ongoing Los Angeles (LA) fires are causing large-scale destruction of housing, infrastructure and production assets, with uncertain and costly reconstruction. The fires highlight the impact of climate change as a negative supply shock and cast doubts on the Fed’s hopes that above target services inflation can be offset with below target goods inflation. Market […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Net hiring, a better indicator of labour market tightness than hiring or quit rates, remains at the average of 2019. The unemployment increase reflects labour market normalization and a surge in migrants, who take longer to find a job. The recent employment growth slowdown likely reflects a slower increase in migrants (i.e., labour supply). […]
Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez
Summary Trump will be sworn in on 20 January at 12PM ET (5PM UKT). He is expected to deliver over 25 executive orders on his first day in office. This aligns with the new direction US presidents are taking to deliver early results. The first wave of orders is rumoured to focus on initial tariff […]
Bilal Hafeez
Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Fed eased as expected but communicated a shallower trajectory for the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) with only two 2025 cuts. Jerome Powell stressed the Fed was entering a new phase: with the FFR close enough to its neutral value, actual disinflation progress would be required for further FFR cuts. Market Implications I still […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary CPI was in line with expectations. Goods deflation stopped, shelter slowed and supercore inflation accelerated somewhat. Trend measures show inflation is becoming stickier. Market Implications I continue to expect the Fed to cut 25bp in December, in line with markets pricing 95% risk. I expect the Fed to remain on hold in 2025, against […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Fed is likely to cut next week despite disinflation stalling as it believes policy is still restrictive and risks to the mandate are balanced. The SEP is likely to show two 2025 cuts next year due to: Recently slower progress on inflation. Risks of higher R*. Uncertainty on the incoming Donald Trump administration. […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary We still know little about the incoming Donald Trump administration’s key policies, budget deficit, tariffs and immigration. Key economic nominees so far suggest a focus on both market performance and median household income growth. These need not conflict if growth remains high enough, but we need information to assess whether this is a realistic […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary NFP printed 227k, roughly in line with consensus of 220k. This was more than the 150k I expected but does not change my expectations of a medium-term decline in NFP to about 50k. The labour market remained tight and wage growth stuck at 4% but the ongoing productivity acceleration makes this consistent with 2% […]
Macro Hive
Key Data Events G10 In the US, it is all about inflation data: CPI, PPI – Wednesday, Thursday. CPI and PPI will provide an estimate of core PCE. Provided that estimate remains near or below 25bp, the Fed is likely to cut in December. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: German […]
Bilal Hafeez
Frank Kelly, Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, an independent strategic advisory firm. Frank began his career as a writer for President Ronald Reagan and went on to serve in the White House Office of Political Affairs.
Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…
Already have an account?…
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.