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  1. US Inflation Review: Stasis to Prevent Fed Cuts in 2025

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary US CPI aligned with expectations. Goods continued deflating, housing accelerated, and supercore inflation slowed. Trend measures show inflation becoming stickier. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut 25bp in December, aligning with markets pricing 80% risk. I expect the Fed to remain on hold in 2025, against markets pricing about two cuts. […]

  2. Change of View: Fed on Hold Through 2025

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary The immigration surge has been the main driver of the recent episode of disinflation with above trend growth. With the immigration surge over, GDP growth is likely to slow about 0.75 ppt over the next 12 months, wage growth will remain stuck around its current level and cost pressures will continue. Demand pressures, as […]

  3. Ep. 241: Gary Gerstle on Trump’s Big Win and the Future of American Politics

    Bilal Hafeez

    Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).

  1. FOMC Review: Fed Likely to Cut in December

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary The FOMC cut 25bp as expected. Powell expressed his confidence in a soft landing and willingness to accept inflation above target for another couple of years. The Fed is likely to cut 25bp in December as core PCE is likely to remain in its comfort zone. Market Implications I agree with markets pricing about […]

  2. US Elections Monitor: Exceptional Fundraising to Bring Harris Over the Line?

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary On the eve of election day, betting markets and polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and presidential candidate Donald Trump neck and neck. The Harris campaign has greatly outraised the Trump campaign, and the former has a much larger cash balance to spend on the last few weeks of the campaign, which could bring […]

  3. NFP Review: Labour Market Remains Tight Despite Low NFP

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary NFP printed at 12k, below 100k consensus. The low print reflects mainly the impact of strikes and lower immigration, and to a lesser extent the hurricanes. The labour market remained tight and wage growth accelerated. Wage growth is likely to remain sticky as the immigration surge is over and union militancy seems stronger than […]

Ep. 240: Ebrahim Rahbari on US Election Trades, Fed Cycle and German Challenges

Bilal Hafeez

Ebrahim Rahbari is an independent strategist and economist. Previously, he was Chief Currency Strategist and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Analysis at Citi.

FOMC Preview: Talk Tough and Keep Cutting

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Summary The Fed will likely cut 25bp next week and keep a hawkish tone. Since Chair Jerome Powell turned more hawkish in late September, growth and labour market data have supported this shift. Inflation data is likely to remain within the Fed’s comfort zone until end-2024. The Fed believes its policy stance is restrictive, but […]

  1. Ep. 239: Thomas Drechsel on Measuring Political Pressure on Fed, Predicting Fed, and Better Nowcasts

    Bilal Hafeez

    Thomas Drechsel is Assistant Professor at the Economics Department of the University of Maryland. His research focuses on monetary policy, the role of commodities for emerging market economies, as well as real-time monitoring of economic activity.

  2. Trumponomics: Disruption With Macroeconomic Stability?

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary We travel into the future and publish a policy letter from the Treasury Secretary nominee to President-elect Donald Trump arguing that: Inflation should be kept below 3% through: Keeping policy changes simple and predictable. No increase in the budget deficit. Strong competition policy. Letting the Fed be the Fed. Productivity should be raised through […]

  3. US Elections Monitor: Odds of Republican Sweep Are Surging

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary Despite continuing to outraise presidential candidate Donald Trump by a wide margin, Vice President Kamala Harris has lost her lead. The odds of a Republican sweep have surged, in line with better presidential and Congressional Republican polling. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut two more times in 2024 but 2025 is […]

MH Launches AI Fed Sentiment Analysis to Predict US Rates!

Macro Hive

The culmination of 12 months of work, Bilal Hafeez introduces Macro Hive's cutting-edge AI sentiment index based on Fed communication. He explains why our model outperforms existing indices and reveal what it is currently signalling about US rates.

MH Debate #1: Sahm Sahm But Different

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Summary Unemployment has been increasing for the past 1.5 years, triggering Sahm’s rule. But Sahm’s rule is more a statistical regularity than a predictive model of recession. With other labour market indicators and aggregate demand data pointing at expansion, the US economy is not headed for recession. Market Implications We are short 10Y and 30Y […]

  1. MH Debate #2: No Recession, Higher Rates!

    Antonio Del Favero

    Summary US monetary policy (MP) does not look that restrictive, and financial conditions (FCs) are supporting labour market and economic growth. While the mistakes of the great inflation have been avoided, core inflation will struggle to return to target. The Fed and markets are still too optimistic about cuts. The election outcome could just mean […]

  2. Key Events: Central Bank Speakers Take to the Stage

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the key data point is: Existing/new home sales – Wednesday/Thursday. Consensus expects roughly unchanged numbers from August, which would align with a sluggish residential investment recovery. The Eurozone and UK has a quiet week for hard data but numerous central bank speakers and survey results: Preliminary PMIs – Thursday. […]

  3. Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda

    Bilal Hafeez

    Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast we discuss:

Can Financial Conditions Be Fine-Tuned?

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Summary A bottom-up assessment of monetary policy transmission suggests policy fine-tuning would be difficult. Residential investment is the demand component most responsive to funding costs but accounts for only 3.5% of GDP. The Fed impacts consumption, which accounts for 70% of GDP, mainly through equity and home prices rather than through funding costs. Non-residential investment […]

Bloomberg TV Interview: Bilal Hafeez on Germany’s Lagging Economy, the Trump Trade, and Tech Overhype

Macro Hive

Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez speaks on Bloomberg Europe about Germany's lagging economy, the banking sector, and the macro forces at play in the US economy.

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