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  1. Ep. 239: Thomas Drechsel on Measuring Political Pressure on Fed, Predicting Fed, and Better Nowcasts

    Bilal Hafeez

    Thomas Drechsel is Assistant Professor at the Economics Department of the University of Maryland. His research focuses on monetary policy, the role of commodities for emerging market economies, as well as real-time monitoring of economic activity.

  2. Trumponomics: Disruption With Macroeconomic Stability?

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary We travel into the future and publish a policy letter from the Treasury Secretary nominee to President-elect Donald Trump arguing that: Inflation should be kept below 3% through: Keeping policy changes simple and predictable. No increase in the budget deficit. Strong competition policy. Letting the Fed be the Fed. Productivity should be raised through […]

  3. US Elections Monitor: Odds of Republican Sweep Are Surging

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary Despite continuing to outraise presidential candidate Donald Trump by a wide margin, Vice President Kamala Harris has lost her lead. The odds of a Republican sweep have surged, in line with better presidential and Congressional Republican polling. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut two more times in 2024 but 2025 is […]

  1. MH Launches AI Fed Sentiment Analysis to Predict US Rates!

    Macro Hive

    The culmination of 12 months of work, Bilal Hafeez introduces Macro Hive's cutting-edge AI sentiment index based on Fed communication. He explains why our model outperforms existing indices and reveal what it is currently signalling about US rates.

  2. MH Debate #1: Sahm Sahm But Different

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary Unemployment has been increasing for the past 1.5 years, triggering Sahm’s rule. But Sahm’s rule is more a statistical regularity than a predictive model of recession. With other labour market indicators and aggregate demand data pointing at expansion, the US economy is not headed for recession. Market Implications We are short 10Y and 30Y […]

  3. MH Debate #2: No Recession, Higher Rates!

    Antonio Del Favero

    Summary US monetary policy (MP) does not look that restrictive, and financial conditions (FCs) are supporting labour market and economic growth. While the mistakes of the great inflation have been avoided, core inflation will struggle to return to target. The Fed and markets are still too optimistic about cuts. The election outcome could just mean […]

Key Events: Central Bank Speakers Take to the Stage

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, the key data point is: Existing/new home sales – Wednesday/Thursday. Consensus expects roughly unchanged numbers from August, which would align with a sluggish residential investment recovery. The Eurozone and UK has a quiet week for hard data but numerous central bank speakers and survey results: Preliminary PMIs – Thursday. […]

Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda

Bilal Hafeez

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast we discuss:

  1. Can Financial Conditions Be Fine-Tuned?

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary A bottom-up assessment of monetary policy transmission suggests policy fine-tuning would be difficult. Residential investment is the demand component most responsive to funding costs but accounts for only 3.5% of GDP. The Fed impacts consumption, which accounts for 70% of GDP, mainly through equity and home prices rather than through funding costs. Non-residential investment […]

  2. Bloomberg TV Interview: Bilal Hafeez on Germany’s Lagging Economy, the Trump Trade, and Tech Overhype

    Macro Hive

    Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez speaks on Bloomberg Europe about Germany's lagging economy, the banking sector, and the macro forces at play in the US economy.

  3. Key Events: ECB to Cut 25bp, But Market Still Too Dovish?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: Retail sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (used to build GDP estimates) is 0.3% MoM or 0.1% real (based on CPI). The consensus forecast seems both attainable and in line with recent data suggesting a resilient consumer. In the Eurozone and UK, the […]

Ep. 237: Antonio Del Favero on the Fed’s Mistake, Inflation Risks and Financial Conditions

Bilal Hafeez

Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard.

CPI Review: Positive Surprise but Fed Still on Track for 2024 Cuts

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Summary Core and headline CPI were above market expectations. OER inflation slowed but core goods and supercore services inflation accelerated. Nevertheless, the disinflation trend continued. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut twice more in 2024. Another Upside Surprise September core and headline CPI prints surprised on the upside, as Sam’s model predicted […]

  1. Stand Aside as US Rates Rangebound Until Election

    Richard Jones

    Summary US Treasury (UST) yields have risen sharply across the curve, driven by a stronger-than-expected US jobs report last Friday. Market pricing of further Fed easing for 2024 aligns with the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and our expectations. We expect rates to remain rangebound ahead of the elections next month, with the next […]

  2. Soft Landing Less Likely Than in 1990s

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary A soft landing appears less likely now than in the mid-1990s as: This time the output gap is positive against negative in the 1990s. The Federal Reserve (Fed) was much more proactive in the 1990s. The Fed has tightened more but policy transmission has been weaker this time. Deglobalization, worker power, and fiscal policy […]

  3. Fed Monitor: More Hawkish

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary The Fed has turned more hawkish after stronger GDP and employment data. This is unlikely to impact the central bank’s 2024 policy easing plans. Further tightening of the labour market together with the US election could make the Fed reconsider its 2025 easing plans. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut twice […]

NFP Review: Is the Fed’s Luck Running Out?

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Summary NFPs again surprised on the upside by a wide margin. The release details show the labour market tightened in September. This may reflect the end of the 2022-24 immigration surge that allowed for disinflation with strong growth. Ahead, the Fed could start facing the traditional employment vs inflation trade-off. Market Implications I still expect […]

Quick Take: US Dockers Strike to Have Limited Macro Impact

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Summary US dockworkers in ports accounting for 60% of maritime freight have gone on strike. The impact on growth and inflation is likely to be limited as any deep disruption would likely see the Biden administration intervene. Market Implications I still expect two more 25bp Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cuts in 2024. Dockworkers on Strike […]

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