Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB will cut 25bp this week, in line with consensus. For now, tariffs are dominating all else. In our view, the hawks are overly sanguine about inflation returning sustainably to target. However, hawkishness may not gain traction near-term given tariff fears and suppressed energy prices. The labour market continues to tighten […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary We think the BoC will remain on hold tomorrow. Since the last meeting, reciprocal tariffs have impacted Canada less, while core inflation has crept above 3% YoY. Given recent CAD appreciation, further labour market weakness and the potentially smaller hit to inflation, there may be more focus on Canada’s growth outlook in the months […]
Henry Occleston
Summary ECB voters have started discussing where R* is. But there is little appetite right now in discussing cutting below the neutral rate. We estimate consensus R* is around 2-2.5%, making the market pricing (1.70% in October 2025) look overly dovish. The US election outcome has driven some of this. It probably underestimates the reality […]
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