New Trade: ECB Monitor – Short ERZ5
Henry Occleston
Summary ECB voters have started discussing where R* is. But there is little appetite right now in discussing cutting below the neutral rate. We estimate consensus R* is around 2-2.5%, making the market pricing (1.70% in October 2025) look overly dovish. The US election outcome has driven some of this. It probably underestimates the reality […]