Richard Jones
Summary Beginning in Q4 2024, the US dollar index (DXY) ascent has impressively climbed over 9% since troughing in late September. DXY upside accelerated after Trump’s election victory, with roughly two-thirds of the gain from Q4 occurring since the US election. As Trump takes power next week, we think the USD could be topping out […]
Richard Jones
Summary Next week sees a flurry of event risk, with the Fed, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) rate decisions standing out. Price action has been largely sideways the past month for the US dollar index (DXY) and US yields, with rangebound trading predominant. Expect markets to remain within the November/December […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB to cut 25bp on 12 December. It will also update macroeconomic projections, which are likely to see dovish revisions with inflation sustainably at target in H1 2025. We expect the ECB to avoid fully opening the way to 50bp cuts, but comments will likely add that they are flexible to […]
Richard Jones
Summary Since peaking above 108 (intra-day) on 22 November, the US dollar Index (DXY) moved below 106 one week later and now trades just above 106, about 1.75% lower than that recent peak. Moves in US yields have been similar, with the 2-year yield now about 25bp off its peak two weeks ago and the […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.5% over the past week, with rates models down -1.1% WoW, FX models down -0.5% and equity models up +0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down -0.6% over a […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/USD has bounced about 2% since bottoming out on a 1.03 handle (intra-day) last week. This has coincided with a decline in US yields across the curve. Crowded short positioning, plus oversold technicals that are starting to unwind, have also contributed to the rise in EUR/USD. Market Implications We still think EUR/USD can rally […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Recent developments including Japan’s Q3 GDP data, the October inflation report, and Rengo’s wage demand support the BoJ’s FY 2024 outlook. The LDP announced measures to support the economy, including further cash transfers to low-income workers and raising the income tax threshold. Taken with the recent data, it poses the question: why wait for […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the key data prints: Personal income, spending and PCE – Friday. No surprise on core PCE, Powell has already told us that the Fed expects 2.8% YoY. Consensus forecasts on spending and income imply no real increase, which aligns with my expectations of slower consumption growth in […]
Bilal Hafeez
Charles Engel is Donald Hester Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.1% over the past week, with rates models gaining +0.1% WoW, FX models down -0.1% and equity models down -0.5% WoW. Momentum models are flat in aggregate over […]
Richard Jones
Summary The USD Index (DXY) has rallied to a new YTD high in the past week. This rally is pausing ahead of 107, which is also the 2023 high. The RSI for the USD index recently indicated the DXY was overbought and is now starting to unwind. Market Implications We think the DXY is due […]
Richard Jones
Summary The UK 2-year yield hovers near last week’s six-month high. The Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Review (MPR), following last week’s 25bps cut, broadly aligned with our expectations, without overly hawkish messaging. However, hawkish Fed pricing is feeding into BoE pricing, which challenges fading elevated UK short-end yields. Market Implications Despite the risks, […]
Richard Jones
Summary The US election triggered very choppy price action across all asset classes, with the USD especially volatile this week. USD/JPY, after spiking initially following the Trump victory, has pulled back considerably. USD/JPY price action makes us think further upside will not come easily, although volatility is likely to persist. Market Implications More USD/JPY downside, […]
Richard Jones
Summary Last week’s Japanese election saw the current ruling coalition lose its majority, starting a rare period of political uncertainty in Japan. Following very choppy price action, USD/JPY initially moved higher this week on this uncertainty, but now trades back near pre-election levels. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept rates on hold today but reaffirmed […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.5% over the past week, with equity models down -1.5% WoW, FX models down -0.1% WoW and rates models down -0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/JPY has traded above 150 all week, closing above 152 for the first time since 30 July. Since troughing near 140 in mid-September, USD/JPY has rallied roughly 9%, with rising US yields as well as Japanese and US political the drivers. This has caught the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF)’s attention, whose top currency […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary The BoC wants strong growth to absorb labour market slack. However, Q3 GDP growth could be nearer 1.6%, while core inflation may also undershoot in both Q3 and Q4 by 10bps. The BoC will likely look through October’s unemployment report given the hiring outlook remains weak. Market Implications We expect the BoC to cut […]
Macro Hive
The culmination of 12 months of work, Bilal Hafeez introduces Macro Hive's cutting-edge AI sentiment index based on Fed communication. He explains why our model outperforms existing indices and reveal what it is currently signalling about US rates.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Unemployment has been increasing for the past 1.5 years, triggering Sahm’s rule. But Sahm’s rule is more a statistical regularity than a predictive model of recession. With other labour market indicators and aggregate demand data pointing at expansion, the US economy is not headed for recession. Market Implications We are short 10Y and 30Y […]
At Macro Hive, we offer a wide range of FX rates analysis and research into foreign exchange markets. We provide detailed FX analysis on DM and EM on a weekly basis, while our Emerging Markets team produces daily insights into the latest currency exchange rates and FX trends for China, India, Brazil and other EM countries. Our FX rates analysis also covers carry trades.
The trading of currencies on the FX market (or forex market) occurs 24 hours a day, five days a week across major financial centers worldwide. Our research is therefore global in perspective, and we cover the latest FX news alongside analysis of historical exchange rates in response to macro trends. At Macro Hive, we base our FX rates insights on a longer-term outlook, seeking to hold positions for weeks rather than intraday swings.
As with all investments, trading in currencies entails risk, especially during periods of high market volatility or geopolitical tension. We recommend investors interested in FX investments tailor their exposure according to their risk appetite. It is also possible to hedge to mitigate exposure to risk by using correlated currency pairs.
As a corollary to our FX research, Macro Hive also specialises in interest rate insights. We offer previews and reviews of central bank meetings and analysis of central bank communications, and our research extends to the broad macroeconomic implications of easing and tightening cycles. We use this to inform not just our FX analysis, but also our outlook on bonds, equities, and other asset classes.
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