Ben Ford
Summary The RBA cautiously lowered the cash rate by 25bps to 4.1% at its February meeting. Three factors drove the easing bias, one held it back. 1) Moderating underlying inflation saw price pressures below RBA forecast. Forward-looking data suggests continued easing, too. 2) Subdued private demand growth has worried the RBA. They have baked in […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE cut 25bp, as expected. MPR forecasts were bearish, and comments still indicate more cuts ahead. I read little into the two 50bp votes. Upward revisions to MPR near-term inflation forecasts exceeded our expectations, with smaller impact from one-offs than we anticipate. Despite labour market loosening, medium-term inflation is below target but still […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary The BoC cut 25bp as expected, while ending QT. The reduction in 2025 GDP growth forecast is not dovish as the BoC reduced its assumption for potential growth. Importantly, the bank’s estimate of the output gap narrowed to -0.75% from -1.25%. This implies there is less economic slack than previously thought. Despite stronger consumer […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary We expect the BoC to cut its policy rate by 25 bps tomorrow. Despite a bearish consensus, we don’t see a further reduction in growth forecasts but appreciate the risks to the downside. That’s because we see green shoots in activity, hiring, and investment. Expect Gov Macklem to continue pushing the case for slower […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: PCE, personal income and spending – Friday. Core PCE MoM is likely to print at 20bp, a moderate number unlikely to significantly change the Fed’s inflation views. Consensus on personal income and spending imply a low savings rate that supports continued high consumption and […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB to cut 25bp on 12 December. It will also update macroeconomic projections, which are likely to see dovish revisions with inflation sustainably at target in H1 2025. We expect the ECB to avoid fully opening the way to 50bp cuts, but comments will likely add that they are flexible to […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.5% over the past week, with rates models down -1.1% WoW, FX models down -0.5% and equity models up +0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down -0.6% over a […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Recent developments including Japan’s Q3 GDP data, the October inflation report, and Rengo’s wage demand support the BoJ’s FY 2024 outlook. The LDP announced measures to support the economy, including further cash transfers to low-income workers and raising the income tax threshold. Taken with the recent data, it poses the question: why wait for […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the key data prints: Personal income, spending and PCE – Friday. No surprise on core PCE, Powell has already told us that the Fed expects 2.8% YoY. Consensus forecasts on spending and income imply no real increase, which aligns with my expectations of slower consumption growth in […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.1% over the past week, with rates models gaining +0.1% WoW, FX models down -0.1% and equity models down -0.5% WoW. Momentum models are flat in aggregate over […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.5% over the past week, with equity models down -1.5% WoW, FX models down -0.1% WoW and rates models down -0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary The BoC wants strong growth to absorb labour market slack. However, Q3 GDP growth could be nearer 1.6%, while core inflation may also undershoot in both Q3 and Q4 by 10bps. The BoC will likely look through October’s unemployment report given the hiring outlook remains weak. Market Implications We expect the BoC to cut […]
Macro Hive
The culmination of 12 months of work, Bilal Hafeez introduces Macro Hive's cutting-edge AI sentiment index based on Fed communication. He explains why our model outperforms existing indices and reveal what it is currently signalling about US rates.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Unemployment has been increasing for the past 1.5 years, triggering Sahm’s rule. But Sahm’s rule is more a statistical regularity than a predictive model of recession. With other labour market indicators and aggregate demand data pointing at expansion, the US economy is not headed for recession. Market Implications We are short 10Y and 30Y […]
Antonio Del Favero
Summary US monetary policy (MP) does not look that restrictive, and financial conditions (FCs) are supporting labour market and economic growth. While the mistakes of the great inflation have been avoided, core inflation will struggle to return to target. The Fed and markets are still too optimistic about cuts. The election outcome could just mean […]
Richard Jones
Summary This week’s UK inflation data was weaker than expected, with headline and core at the lowest levels since 2021. This has weighed on UK yields and GBP and increased the probability of two 25bp BoE rate cuts in November and December. Market Implications We expect further downside for UK yields and GBP. We like […]
Richard Jones
Summary Momentum models were up +0.1% over the past week, with equity models up 0.6% WoW, FX models down -0.1% WoW and rates models down -0.1% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over three months, with rates models the best performing (-0.7%). Market Implications Momentum models have pared GBP/USD bullishness. Ben argues GBP has […]
Henry Occleston, Caroline Grady
Summary The ECB is widely expected to cut its depo rate by another 25bps on Thursday. Below-target inflation and increasing signs of economic, and in particular labour market, weakness are why. But we expect a cautious tone given inflation is set to rise again in Q4, risks over January repricing remain, and Q2 employment growth […]
Macro Hive
Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez speaks on Bloomberg Europe about Germany's lagging economy, the banking sector, and the macro forces at play in the US economy.
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