Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez
Summary Trump will be sworn in on 20 January at 12PM ET (5PM UKT). He is expected to deliver over 25 executive orders on his first day in office. This aligns with the new direction US presidents are taking to deliver early results. The first wave of orders is rumoured to focus on initial tariff […]
Bilal Hafeez
Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development.
Bilal Hafeez
Tomasz is a portfolio manager at Amvest Capital – a natural resources-focused investment management firm. He has over 25 years of expertise in mining investments, including as a portfolio manager for Anholt, commodity strategist at Doyen Capital, portfolio manager at De Gouden Eeuw, and as a commodity analyst at Round Table Investment Management.
Bilal Hafeez
Speech given to members of a leading UK political party in London on 5 December 2024. The UK’s Fundamental Problem: Productivity Rather than talking about the recent UK budget or other such announcements, I would rather discuss the broader context of what hampers the UK economy. From there, we can then understand which are the […]
Bilal Hafeez
Frank Kelly, Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, an independent strategic advisory firm. Frank began his career as a writer for President Ronald Reagan and went on to serve in the White House Office of Political Affairs.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The incoming Treasury Secretary will likely have two key priorities. First is funding the government: expect lower bill issuance and a lower TGA target at the February QRA. Second is enacting Trump’s electoral promises, which will probably widen the budget deficit. Market Implications Likely fiscal stimulus adds to my conviction of no cuts in […]
Bilal Hafeez
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments.
Bilal Hafeez
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015).
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary On the eve of election day, betting markets and polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and presidential candidate Donald Trump neck and neck. The Harris campaign has greatly outraised the Trump campaign, and the former has a much larger cash balance to spend on the last few weeks of the campaign, which could bring […]
Macro Hive
The culmination of 12 months of work, Bilal Hafeez introduces Macro Hive's cutting-edge AI sentiment index based on Fed communication. He explains why our model outperforms existing indices and reveal what it is currently signalling about US rates.
Macro Hive
Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez speaks on Bloomberg Europe about Germany's lagging economy, the banking sector, and the macro forces at play in the US economy.
Bilal Hafeez
Sean McMeekin PhD was educated at Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley. Having visited American and European battlefields, libraries and archives, venturing as far east as Russia and Turkey, he now teaches at Bard College.
Macro Hive
Summary A Republican sweep (red WH and Congress) could result in stagflation and force the Fed to hike. Meanwhile, a Democratic sweep (blue WH and Congress) would likely align with the Fed’s current projections. Market Implications A Trump victory would likely lead to bear steepening in the yield curve, and a stronger USD especially vs […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to widen her small lead over presidential nominee Donald Trump but continues to outraise him. Should Harris win, pollsters expect a red Congress while betting markets see a blue or split Congress as most likely. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut two more times in […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Vice President Kamala Harris’ nationwide popularity is increasing but she is still within the margin of error in the swing states. The Democrats still appear likely to lose the Senate while the House could be in play. Market Implications I expect the Fed to cut 50bp this week, 100bp this year and 150bp next […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Vice President Kamala Harris’ nationwide popularity is increasing but she is still within the margin of error in the swing states. The Democrats still appear likely to lose the Senate while the House could be in play. Market Implications I expect the Fed to cut 50bp this week, 100bp this year and 150bp next […]
Ranen McCormick
Summary The financial industry has witnessed the dramatic rise of private equity and index funds over the last two decades. Now, just a handful of asset management institutions dominate American finance, as John Coates reveals on our recent podcast and in his new book, The Problem of Twelve. Political hostility to private equity and index […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Vice President Kamala Harris is polling ahead of presidential candidate Donald Trump but remains within the margin of error. Harris’ policies involve stronger competition policies as well as social spending to be funded by unspecified taxes on wealthier Americans and businesses. Even if Harris wins the White House, she will likely face a split […]
Ben Ford
Summary BLS employment growth revisions (3PM UKT, Wednesday) are forecasted to be the largest in 15 years. However, the Fed are well prepped for revisions; Powell has already been vocal on the topic. Harris (Thursday) is due to speak on the final day of the DNC. She has already revealed a lot about her economic […]
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