Macro Hive
New Year, New Risks Threats of nuclear war, Elon in government and a (brief) coup in South Korea – 2024 has already pushed the boundaries on grey swans: those massive, almost impossible to predict events. So, in our annual assessment of possible grey swans for 2025, we go the extra mile in stretching the imagination. […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Time for Policymakers to Delegate? The last four years have been a torrid time for central banking. The Fed […]
Liang Ding
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Dragon Years With Mixed Feelings The Dragon symbolizes power and holds an esteemed place in Chinese culture. Yet Chinese […]
Bilal Hafeez, Liang Ding
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Dollar Dominance in Decline? The US dollar has been the dominant reserve currency held by central banks worldwide since […]
Richard Jones
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Football Focus My Grey Swan this year focuses on the plight of Manchester City. My low probability, maximum impact […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. DOGE Steps Up a Gear The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cannot be faulted for not trying hard enough. […]
Henry Occleston
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could Germany Become the Eurozone’s Savior? Eurozone integration never moves faster than it absolutely must. However, its greatest developments […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Promise Kept It is December 2025 and 11mn illegal migrants have been expelled. Nobody thought it possible. The incoming Trump […]
Ebrahim Rahbari
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could 2025 Be the Year of UAPs? You may be forgiven for not knowing what UAPs are. They are […]
Antonio Del Favero
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could DOGE Do the Impossible? In FY2024, total US government spending was $6.75tn against a total revenue of $4.92tn, resulting […]
Henry Occleston
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Petition Impossible Almost three million people have signed a petition calling for a fresh General Election. Just seventeen more […]
Karl Massey
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. At the Crossroads In 2025, the world finds itself at a startling crossroad. While the US revels in an […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. The Gibson 24 December 2025 – Treasury Secretary Bessent steps out of his official car in front of the […]
Bilal Hafeez
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. The Allure of Low Rates Low interest rates, especially zero, are alluring. They boost asset prices, make funding the […]
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