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  1. G10 FX Weekly: EUR/CHF Relief Rally Belies Bond Market Angst

    Richard Jones

    Summary EUR/CHF has retraced all the down move following the European election results and the snap French election call, both on 9 June. The pair dropped almost 2% between the close of business 7 June and close of business on 18 June. EUR/CHF rallied modestly after the SNB rate cut on 20 June but has […]

  2. Key Events: Inflation Data Deluge Across DM and EM

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the main events are: Core PCE – Friday. Expect no surprise since PPI and CPI allow for close approximation. The more reliable indicator of trend will be the Cleveland Fed’s median price PCE, published a few hours after the BEA release. Personal income and spending – Friday. Consensus estimates […]

  3. G10 FX Weekly: Meagre EUR/CHF Rally Post-SNB Shows Bearish Market Bias

    Richard Jones

    Summary EUR/CHF is down ~2.8% in June, poised for its biggest monthly drop year-to-date (YTD). The SNB, broadly consistent with market expectations, cut its policy rate 25bps to 1.25% yesterday. CHF strength this month has been driven largely by political uncertainty in France, where President Emmanuel Macron announced snap parliamentary elections. This political uncertainty is […]

  1. G10 FX Weekly: More Downside for UK Short-End Yields, Bearish GBP/CAD

    Richard Jones

    Summary The 2-year UK gilt yield has fallen over 30bps from last month’s peak. This followed the dovish policy update from the Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last month, voting 7-2 in favour of holding rates. Two dissenters (including Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden) called for an immediate cut. The BoE updates policy […]

  2. G10 FX Weekly: USD/JPY Is a Sell-on-Rallies Ahead of BoJ, Fed and NFP

    Richard Jones

    Summary USD/JPY is trading very near the middle of the range seen since the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened in the FX market in late April. Over this period, the US 2-year yield is currently near the bottom of the prevailing ~4.7%/~5.0 range. Tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will be key for determining […]

  3. Key Events: NFP to Show Labour Market Remains Tight

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the main data releases are: NFP – Friday. Consensus expects 185k and unemployment at 3.9% – i.e., a tight labour market still. I agree. Trade balance – Thursday. A downside surprise to the consensus estimate of ‑$69.7bn would indicate a buildup of domestic demand pressures. JOLTS – Tuesday. We […]

G10 FX Weekly: SNB and Swiss Data Put Paid to EUR/CHF Upside (for Now)

Richard Jones

Summary Comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Jordan on inflation and the Swiss franc (CHF) have driven the biggest one-day decline in EUR/CHF since October. The pair is now poised for its worst week of 2024. The franc also found support from the much stronger-than-expected Q1 Swiss GDP data. Market Implications We stand aside […]

G10 FX Weekly: Parity in EUR/CHF Next as Dip-Buying Performs

Richard Jones

Summary One of the best performing G10 FX trades in 2024 has been buying dips in EUR/CHF. After the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets with a rate cut in March, attention now turns to next month’s SNB policy update, with Swiss inflation back at the SNB’s target. Markets will closely watch a speech from […]

  1. G10 FX Weekly: USD and US Short-End Yields Rangebound, With Downward Bias

    Richard Jones

    Summary An in-line US CPI reading and weaker-than-expected retail sales print drove US short-end yields and USD lower on the week. The US 2-year yield is poised for its second lower weekly close in three weeks, while the USD index (DXY) is set to close lower for the third week in four. USD/JPY traded lower […]

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