Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: NFP – Friday. If the print shows no marked improvement on July and is below consensus for UE falling to 4.2%, the Fed will likely frontload rate cuts, starting with 50bp in September. JOLTS – Wednesday. The U/V ratio is more important than headline. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main releases are: July durable goods orders – Monday. The market is looking for a rise of 4.2% MoM after June’s dip, but a flat reading ex-transportation. The second reading of Q2 GDP – Thursday. Expectations are for the QoQ SAAR to remain at +2.8% from the first read. […]
Richard Jones
Summary As is common in August, reduced market liquidity has rendered trading conditions sub-optimal. This month has seen big moves, and sizeable retracements of those moves, across all global macro asset classes. We see these dynamics continuing for the next 1-2 weeks so keep our powder dry into September. Liquidity should improve then, and durable […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The market is fully pricing a 25bp cut in September. However, recent data suggests the ECB will need to revise their forecasts more hawkishly at the September meeting. This, and the amount of incoming data, elevates the risk of the ECB pausing in September. We therefore see good value in fading the 25bp cut […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus is 0.2% MoM for core. The Fed will look for continued OER disinflation and, based on CPI and Tuesday’s PPI, an estimate of core PCE near 20bp. Retail sales – Wednesday. Following June’s 0.4%, consensus expects a slowdown to 0.1% ex […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key event: ISM Services PMI – Monday. Following the NFP miss, any miss relative to consensus of 51.3 could see further rate cuts priced in. In the Eurozone and UK, it is a quiet week: German Final July CPI – Friday. Preliminary EZ July inflation […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… PCE price index, pers. income, spending – Friday. Consensus seems reasonable. The Fed watches the services component of PCE. We will examine median price PCE for indication of trend and see personal savings remaining around 4%. Q2 GDP – Thursday. Consensus is 1.9% vs the Atlanta Fed’s […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We do not expect the ECB to change policy this week. Nor do we expect much forward guidance – the ECB is watching the data. Comments will likely emphasise every meeting is live. We think two cuts by yearend is reasonable. This week also brings the final read of the June inflation data. It […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the important data points: Retail sales – Tuesday. Expect 0.2% for the control group, in line with consensus. Consumption growth is slowing due to catchup in personal income tax payments. Manufacturing production – Tuesday. Consensus of –0.1% mom appears reasonable, though the data says little about the […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB to cut twice more this year. However, within recent ECB comments on 2024 cuts, one more cut has emerged as most popular. Most important voices have yet to opine, though. The June ECB meeting minutes suggest general agreement that disinflation is underway and a broad capacity to look through bumps. […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models up 0.5% WoW, rates flat WoW and FX down 0.2% WoW. All momentum models are down over a three-month timeframe, with […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the most important data is: NFP – Friday. We agree with the consensus on payrolls and unemployment. Wage growth will be more important than usual due to last month’s pickup, which some argue is the start of a trend. ISM PMIs – manu. Monday, services Wednesday. We agree with […]
Bilal Hafeez
Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models down 0.1% WoW, rates up 0.2% WoW and FX unchanged WoW. FX momentum models are the best performing over a three-month […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main events are: Core PCE – Friday. Expect no surprise since PPI and CPI allow for close approximation. The more reliable indicator of trend will be the Cleveland Fed’s median price PCE, published a few hours after the BEA release. Personal income and spending – Friday. Consensus estimates […]
Henry Occleston
Summary Following the cut at their last meeting, ECB speakers mostly agree they are now in cautious data-watching mode. We assess the current data picture across services inflation, wage growth and unit profits. Inflation is trending back towards normality, but services continue to overshoot. Wage growth remains too strong, although evidence of whether this will […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, Wednesday is a federal holiday. Otherwise, the main data releases are: Retail sales – Tuesday. Consensus for the control group is 0.3% MoM vs -0.3% in April. This sounds reasonable: the series is noisy, and retail sales cover only goods and restaurant consumption. The more important economic data is […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB will cut 25bp on Thursday, but more interesting will be their forecasts and subsequent actions. We expect little change to the forecasts, with the ECB looking through recent labour market strength but providing a modestly higher profile for medium-term inflation. Services and domestic inflation will remain key, particularly if goods […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data releases are: NFP – Friday. Consensus expects 185k and unemployment at 3.9% – i.e., a tight labour market still. I agree. Trade balance – Thursday. A downside surprise to the consensus estimate of ‑$69.7bn would indicate a buildup of domestic demand pressures. JOLTS – Tuesday. We […]
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