Subscribe

Europesee more…

  1. Key Events: Central Bank Speakers Take to the Stage

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the key data point is: Existing/new home sales – Wednesday/Thursday. Consensus expects roughly unchanged numbers from August, which would align with a sluggish residential investment recovery. The Eurozone and UK has a quiet week for hard data but numerous central bank speakers and survey results: Preliminary PMIs – Thursday. […]

  2. ECB Preview: A Cautious 25bp Cut

    Henry Occleston, Caroline Grady

    Summary The ECB is widely expected to cut its depo rate by another 25bps on Thursday. Below-target inflation and increasing signs of economic, and in particular labour market, weakness are why. But we expect a cautious tone given inflation is set to rise again in Q4, risks over January repricing remain, and Q2 employment growth […]

  3. Bloomberg TV Interview: Bilal Hafeez on Germany’s Lagging Economy, the Trump Trade, and Tech Overhype

    Macro Hive

    Macro Hive CEO and Head of Research Bilal Hafeez speaks on Bloomberg Europe about Germany's lagging economy, the banking sector, and the macro forces at play in the US economy.

  1. Key Events: ECB to Cut 25bp, But Market Still Too Dovish?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: Retail sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (used to build GDP estimates) is 0.3% MoM or 0.1% real (based on CPI). The consensus forecast seems both attainable and in line with recent data suggesting a resilient consumer. In the Eurozone and UK, the […]

  2. ECB Monitor: October Cut, Then What?

    Henry Occleston

    Summary The ECB seems almost certain to cut 25bp at its 17 October meeting. Post-NFP, the market has pared expectations of cuts over the next year, but it is still pricing four 25bp cuts in as many meetings. While September inflation took it below ECB forecasts, we are cautious that we may be seeing a […]

  3. ECB Preview – 25bp Cut With a ‘Gradual’ Approach Ahead as Wages Slow

    Viresh Kanabar

    Summary Since our ECB monitor last month, wage data shows further slowing in Q2. This will ease ECB concerns about the risk of an overshoot given the staggered nature of the negotiated wage agreements. While Q2 GDP data was revised lower, excluding Ireland, EZ growth remains fine. Finally, inflation continued to cool in August but […]

Key Events: Could Payrolls Prompt Fed Frontloading?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: NFP – Friday. If the print shows no marked improvement on July and is below consensus for UE falling to 4.2%, the Fed will likely frontload rate cuts, starting with 50bp in September. JOLTS – Wednesday. The U/V ratio is more important than headline. […]

Key Events: Could Fresh Data Shift Market Pricing for September’s ECB Decision?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, the main releases are: July durable goods orders – Monday. The market is looking for a rise of 4.2% MoM after June’s dip, but a flat reading ex-transportation. The second reading of Q2 GDP – Thursday. Expectations are for the QoQ SAAR to remain at +2.8% from the first read. […]

  1. G10 FX Weekly: Dog Days of Summer: Beware the Noise, Prepare for September

    Richard Jones

    Summary As is common in August, reduced market liquidity has rendered trading conditions sub-optimal. This month has seen big moves, and sizeable retracements of those moves, across all global macro asset classes. We see these dynamics continuing for the next 1-2 weeks so keep our powder dry into September. Liquidity should improve then, and durable […]

  2. New Trade: ECB Monitor – Tactically Fade Priced September Cut

    Henry Occleston

    Summary The market is fully pricing a 25bp cut in September. However, recent data suggests the ECB will need to revise their forecasts more hawkishly at the September meeting. This, and the amount of incoming data, elevates the risk of the ECB pausing in September. We therefore see good value in fading the 25bp cut […]

  3. Key Events: Will UK Data Open the Way for a September Cut?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus is 0.2% MoM for core. The Fed will look for continued OER disinflation and, based on CPI and Tuesday’s PPI, an estimate of core PCE near 20bp. Retail sales – Wednesday. Following June’s 0.4%, consensus expects a slowdown to 0.1% ex […]

Key Events: More Fed Cuts to Be Priced?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key event: ISM Services PMI – Monday. Following the NFP miss, any miss relative to consensus of 51.3 could see further rate cuts priced in. In the Eurozone and UK, it is a quiet week: German Final July CPI – Friday. Preliminary EZ July inflation […]

Key Events: Fed Blackout, Biden Pullout?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, there is… PCE price index, pers. income, spending – Friday. Consensus seems reasonable. The Fed watches the services component of PCE. We will examine median price PCE for indication of trend and see personal savings remaining around 4%. Q2 GDP – Thursday. Consensus is 1.9% vs the Atlanta Fed’s […]

  1. ECB Preview: Wake Me Up When September Comes

    Henry Occleston

    Summary We do not expect the ECB to change policy this week. Nor do we expect much forward guidance – the ECB is watching the data. Comments will likely emphasise every meeting is live. We think two cuts by yearend is reasonable. This week also brings the final read of the June inflation data. It […]

  2. Key Events: Powell to Tell Markets to Get Real

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, these are the important data points: Retail sales – Tuesday. Expect 0.2% for the control group, in line with consensus. Consumption growth is slowing due to catchup in personal income tax payments. Manufacturing production – Tuesday. Consensus of –0.1% mom appears reasonable, though the data says little about the […]

  3. ECB Monitor: Looking Through Bumpy Disinflation

    Henry Occleston

    Summary We expect the ECB to cut twice more this year. However, within recent ECB comments on 2024 cuts, one more cut has emerged as most popular. Most important voices have yet to opine, though. The June ECB meeting minutes suggest general agreement that disinflation is underway and a broad capacity to look through bumps. […]

Momentum Models Flat for Second Week as Equities Outperform Rates and FX

Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models up 0.5% WoW, rates flat WoW and FX down 0.2% WoW. All momentum models are down over a three-month timeframe, with […]

Key Events: Election Tension Mounts in UK and France

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, the most important data is: NFP – Friday. We agree with the consensus on payrolls and unemployment. Wage growth will be more important than usual due to last month’s pickup, which some argue is the start of a trend. ISM PMIs – manu. Monday, services Wednesday. We agree with […]

View all articles in "Europe"…

Subscribe to Macro Hive

Macro Hive is the community platform for the thinking investor…

START 30-DAY FREE TRIAL

Already have an account?…

Log in…

Get the weekly newsletter 16,000+ finance pros read for 'must-have' trade ideas.

    Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now