Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is: PCE, personal spending and income – Friday. Personal spending will likely show the consumption weakness implied by last week’s retail sales was overstated. Core PCE will likely print near market consensus of 2.6%. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: EZ final […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.1% over the past week, with equity models up +0.4% WoW, FX models down -0.3% WoW, and rates models down -0.2% WoW. Momentum models are up +1.0% in […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.4% over the past week, with equity models up +1.2% WoW, FX models up +0.1% WoW, and rates models up +0.3% WoW. Momentum models are up +0.8% in […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expecting rangebound CPI (2.9% core YoY) makes sense. Thursday’s PPI will provide an estimate for core PCE that I also expect to be near the current 2.6-2.8% range. Retail sales – Friday. The control group consensus (used to estimate consumption in the GDP […]
Bilal Hafeez
Jonny Matthews is a senior portfolio manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, an institutional-level macroeconomic research platform. Before that, he spent 12 years as a partner at Brevan Howard, where he managed a $500 million investment portfolio.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.4% over the past week, with equity models up +0.3% WoW, FX models down -0.3% WoW, and rates models down -0.9%. Momentum models are up +0.4% in aggregate […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: 25% tariff on Mexican and Candian imports – Saturday. As of this writing (Friday), negotiations were still underway for a last-minute deal. If a deal is not found, we think these are the likely market impacts. NFP – Friday. The release will incorporate both the […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were steady over the past week, with equity models up +0.3% WoW, FX models down -0.1% WoW, and rates models down -0.2%. Momentum models are up +1.3% in aggregate over […]
Bilal Hafeez
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.1% over the past week, with equity models up -1.8% WoW, FX models down -0.3% WoW, and rates models down -0.4%. Momentum models are up +1.7% in aggregate […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.2% over the past week, with FX and rates models both down -0.1% WoW, and equity models down -0.6% WoW. Momentum models are up +1.2% in aggregate over […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Much higher than expected NFP and other data sources show still-strong labour demand. By contrast, labour supply seems to be peaking and will likely suffer from fewer migrants under the incoming administration. Various indicators point to an already tight labour market, with signs the economy could be running out of easily employable workers. While […]
Bilal Hafeez
Mark Rzepczynski is the managing member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, a consulting firm to institutional investors and hedge funds on derivatives markets across all asset classes. His 40 years of experience includes CEO Funds Group of FourWinds Capital Management, president, CIO of John W. Henry Inc, and head of taxable fixed income research at Fidelity Management and Research.
Bilal Hafeez
Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy.
Bilal Hafeez
Tomasz is a portfolio manager at Amvest Capital – a natural resources-focused investment management firm. He has over 25 years of expertise in mining investments, including as a portfolio manager for Anholt, commodity strategist at Doyen Capital, portfolio manager at De Gouden Eeuw, and as a commodity analyst at Round Table Investment Management.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.4% over the past week, with FX models up +0.7% WoW, rates models up +0.1% WoW, and equity models flat WoW. Momentum models are up +0.1% in aggregate […]
Bilal Hafeez
Speech given to members of a leading UK political party in London on 5 December 2024. The UK’s Fundamental Problem: Productivity Rather than talking about the recent UK budget or other such announcements, I would rather discuss the broader context of what hampers the UK economy. From there, we can then understand which are the […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.2% over the past week, with equity models up 1.1% WoW, and FX models and rates models flat WoW. Momentum models are down -0.1% in aggregate over a […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The incoming Treasury Secretary will likely have two key priorities. First is funding the government: expect lower bill issuance and a lower TGA target at the February QRA. Second is enacting Trump’s electoral promises, which will probably widen the budget deficit. Market Implications Likely fiscal stimulus adds to my conviction of no cuts in […]
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