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  1. Ep. 242: Alberto Gallo on Trump Impact, Geopolitics and Favourite Markets

    Bilal Hafeez

    Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments.

  2. Momentum Models Post Solid Gain as FX Leads, Equities Lag

    Richard Jones

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.7% over the past week, with FX models gaining +1.4% WoW, rates models up 0.3% and equity models down -0.5% WoW. Momentum models are up in aggregate over […]

  3. Key Events: Will CPI Support a December Fed Cut?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. From a trading perspective, CPI is the more important release (for market impact, see our Event Monitor). From an economic and Fed perspective, it is the CPI/PPI combination that matters because they will give us an estimate of core PCE, the price index targeted […]

  1. Momentum Models Gain With Equity Leading

    Richard Jones

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.5% over the past week, with equity models gaining +1.0% WoW, and FX and rates models both up +0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over a […]

  2. Weekly Investment View: Trading Around the US Election

    Macro Hive

    This Week Global Macro – Bilal discusses market messaging into the US election. US Macro – Dominique highlights key pieces we have published on the US election. US Rates – Antonio thinks the US elections are neck and neck, and Harris’ chances have been underestimated by markets (why he closed his US rates short last […]

  3. Key Events: US Elections – A Republican Sweep?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Elections – Tuesday. Prediction markets see a Republican sweep as the most likely outcome, which consensus views as bad for inflation but good for growth. The surprise would be a Republican sweep followed by macroeconomic stability, though we will not know the policy directions of the incoming […]

Momentum Returns Consolidate With Rates Outperforming

Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models down -0.8% WoW, FX models down -0.1% WoW and rates models up +0.8% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over […]

Key Events: Will Weather Events Cloud NFP?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, there is… NFP – Friday. I agree with the consensus though the number will be difficult to interpret because of the impact of hurricanes. PCE, personal spending and income – Thursday. We expect core PCE MoM at 24bp. I will be focusing on the low savings rate as it […]

  1. MH Debate #1: Sahm Sahm But Different

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary Unemployment has been increasing for the past 1.5 years, triggering Sahm’s rule. But Sahm’s rule is more a statistical regularity than a predictive model of recession. With other labour market indicators and aggregate demand data pointing at expansion, the US economy is not headed for recession. Market Implications We are short 10Y and 30Y […]

  2. MH Debate #2: No Recession, Higher Rates!

    Antonio Del Favero

    Summary US monetary policy (MP) does not look that restrictive, and financial conditions (FCs) are supporting labour market and economic growth. While the mistakes of the great inflation have been avoided, core inflation will struggle to return to target. The Fed and markets are still too optimistic about cuts. The election outcome could just mean […]

  3. Can Financial Conditions Be Fine-Tuned?

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary A bottom-up assessment of monetary policy transmission suggests policy fine-tuning would be difficult. Residential investment is the demand component most responsive to funding costs but accounts for only 3.5% of GDP. The Fed impacts consumption, which accounts for 70% of GDP, mainly through equity and home prices rather than through funding costs. Non-residential investment […]

Momentum Flips Bearish US Fixed Income, Remains Bullish Global Equities

Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.4% over the past week, with equity models up 0.6% WoW, FX models down -0.7% WoW and rates models down -0.6% WoW. Momentum models are down over a […]

NFP Review: Is the Fed’s Luck Running Out?

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Summary NFPs again surprised on the upside by a wide margin. The release details show the labour market tightened in September. This may reflect the end of the 2022-24 immigration surge that allowed for disinflation with strong growth. Ahead, the Fed could start facing the traditional employment vs inflation trade-off. Market Implications I still expect […]

  1. Key Events: Fed Minutes to Explain 50bp Cut as CPI Looms

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there are two key data releases: CPI and PPI – Thursday and Friday. As always, the Fed will focus on the PCE estimate to be derived from CPI and PPI rather than on CPI. The PCE estimate is unlikely to be large enough to prevent the Fed from cutting […]

  2. Momentum Returns Sluggish as All Strategies Underperform

    Richard Jones

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.4% over the past week, with equity models down -0.3% WoW, FX models down -0.6% WoW and rates models down -0.1% WoW. Momentum models are down over a […]

  3. Quick Take: US Dockers Strike to Have Limited Macro Impact

    Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

    Summary US dockworkers in ports accounting for 60% of maritime freight have gone on strike. The impact on growth and inflation is likely to be limited as any deep disruption would likely see the Biden administration intervene. Market Implications I still expect two more 25bp Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cuts in 2024. Dockworkers on Strike […]

Macro & Market Implications of US Elections

Macro Hive

Summary A Republican sweep (red WH and Congress) could result in stagflation and force the Fed to hike. Meanwhile, a Democratic sweep (blue WH and Congress) would likely align with the Fed’s current projections. Market Implications A Trump victory would likely lead to bear steepening in the yield curve, and a stronger USD especially vs […]

Key Events: Will the Moderate NFP Pattern Continue?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, there is… NFP – Friday. A repeat of last month’s pattern of moderate NFP with lower unemployment and faster wage growth could signal lower immigration flows and associated tightening of the labour market. PMIs – Tuesday (manufacturing) and Thursday (services). PMIs are more important from a trading than from […]

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