Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down -0.2% over the past week, with FX and rates models both down -0.1% WoW, and equity models down -0.6% WoW. Momentum models are up +1.2% in aggregate over […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Much higher than expected NFP and other data sources show still-strong labour demand. By contrast, labour supply seems to be peaking and will likely suffer from fewer migrants under the incoming administration. Various indicators point to an already tight labour market, with signs the economy could be running out of easily employable workers. While […]
Bilal Hafeez
Mark Rzepczynski is the managing member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, a consulting firm to institutional investors and hedge funds on derivatives markets across all asset classes. His 40 years of experience includes CEO Funds Group of FourWinds Capital Management, president, CIO of John W. Henry Inc, and head of taxable fixed income research at Fidelity Management and Research.
Bilal Hafeez
Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy.
Bilal Hafeez
Tomasz is a portfolio manager at Amvest Capital – a natural resources-focused investment management firm. He has over 25 years of expertise in mining investments, including as a portfolio manager for Anholt, commodity strategist at Doyen Capital, portfolio manager at De Gouden Eeuw, and as a commodity analyst at Round Table Investment Management.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.4% over the past week, with FX models up +0.7% WoW, rates models up +0.1% WoW, and equity models flat WoW. Momentum models are up +0.1% in aggregate […]
Bilal Hafeez
Speech given to members of a leading UK political party in London on 5 December 2024. The UK’s Fundamental Problem: Productivity Rather than talking about the recent UK budget or other such announcements, I would rather discuss the broader context of what hampers the UK economy. From there, we can then understand which are the […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.2% over the past week, with equity models up 1.1% WoW, and FX models and rates models flat WoW. Momentum models are down -0.1% in aggregate over a […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The incoming Treasury Secretary will likely have two key priorities. First is funding the government: expect lower bill issuance and a lower TGA target at the February QRA. Second is enacting Trump’s electoral promises, which will probably widen the budget deficit. Market Implications Likely fiscal stimulus adds to my conviction of no cuts in […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the key data prints: Personal income, spending and PCE – Friday. No surprise on core PCE, Powell has already told us that the Fed expects 2.8% YoY. Consensus forecasts on spending and income imply no real increase, which aligns with my expectations of slower consumption growth in […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Recent NFP prints and pre-pandemic CBO projections suggest sub-100k NFPs could be the new normal now the immigration surge is over. If so, a large negative surprise at the 6 December NFP release is likely, which would rekindle recessions fears and expectations of Fed cuts. I expect the Fed to respond with a cut […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, we have a data-light week ahead: S&P PMIs – Friday. The week’s most important release will be the S&P PMIs. Like most soft data, they have decoupled from the hard data so tell us little about the economy. For a trading perspective on the PMIs, see our Event Monitor. […]
Bilal Hafeez
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.7% over the past week, with FX models gaining +1.4% WoW, rates models up 0.3% and equity models down -0.5% WoW. Momentum models are up in aggregate over […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. From a trading perspective, CPI is the more important release (for market impact, see our Event Monitor). From an economic and Fed perspective, it is the CPI/PPI combination that matters because they will give us an estimate of core PCE, the price index targeted […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up +0.5% over the past week, with equity models gaining +1.0% WoW, and FX and rates models both up +0.3% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over a […]
Macro Hive
This Week Global Macro – Bilal discusses market messaging into the US election. US Macro – Dominique highlights key pieces we have published on the US election. US Rates – Antonio thinks the US elections are neck and neck, and Harris’ chances have been underestimated by markets (why he closed his US rates short last […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Elections – Tuesday. Prediction markets see a Republican sweep as the most likely outcome, which consensus views as bad for inflation but good for growth. The surprise would be a Republican sweep followed by macroeconomic stability, though we will not know the policy directions of the incoming […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week, with equity models down -0.8% WoW, FX models down -0.1% WoW and rates models up +0.8% WoW. Momentum models are down in aggregate over […]
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