MH Debate #1: Sahm Sahm But Different
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Unemployment has been increasing for the past 1.5 years, triggering Sahm’s rule. But Sahm’s rule is more a statistical regularity than a predictive model of recession. With other labour market indicators and aggregate demand data pointing at expansion, the US economy is not headed for recession. Market Implications We are short 10Y and 30Y […]