John Tierney
Summary The recent New York Community Bank (NYCB) blowup has brought renewed focus on bank exposure to commercial real estate (CRE). It is a potential problem – banks hold about 50% of CRE debt. Fortunately, the risk is distributed across some 5,000+ mostly small banks that serve local markets. More bank failures and mergers are […]
Bilal Hafeez
Shiloh Bates is the Chief Investment Officer of Flat Rock Global in 2018 – a $750mn credit manager.
John Tierney
Credit spreads have trended tighter in recent weeks, despite some high-profile defaults and downgrades of regional banks by Moody’s. Bottomline, these events have been in market prices for months.
John Tierney
Credit spreads tightened significantly over the past month as equities continued to rally and the VIX index of equity volatility traded at post-pandemic lows.
John Tierney
Investment grade and high yield corporate bond spreads are trading in a narrow range, in line with equity volatility.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
As is typical of most recoveries, the credit impulse is currently negative, suggesting a bank credit crunch may impact growth little.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper, co-authored by researchers from Stanford and Columbia, analyses the US banking system’s exposure to rising interest rates.
John Tierney
Summary Pundits are again tilting at the frothy high yield credit market, saying spreads are too tight given rising rates and recession risks. They miss obvious fundamental reasons why credit spreads remain tight – default rates are low, and corporate balance sheets are in great shape.
John Tierney
Corporate bonds spreads will widen significantly if, as we anticipate, persistent inflation leads to higher rates and a recession later this year.
Richard Jones
The concept of the business cycle has always fascinated me. And I have always thought understanding it is important for improving investment and trading decisions.
Bilal Hafeez
Marion is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank in London and a lecturer at Harvard University. She has extensive private sector, public policy, and monetary policy experience...
Matthew Tibble
Markets are mispricing Fed hiking. FX markets are in fear mode. EGB issuance is rising, with Germany’s supply of Bund duration expected to grow most.
Bilal Hafeez
Ray is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management. He joined Pictet in 2010 as Head of Total Return Fixed Income, before becoming CIO in 2017 and an Equity Partner in 2018.
Bilal Hafeez
Dan Zwirn is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Arena Investors LP. Arena is a $3.4 billion global investment firm focusing on special situations asset and credit investments in corporates, real estate, structured finance, and corporate securities.
Bilal Hafeez
Andy Constan has spent the past 33 years investing and trading global markets. He’s worked at leading hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist.
Bilal Hafeez
Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) is the author of The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing educational macroeconomic insights &...
Bilal Hafeez
In this report, we standardise price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons. US 2-year yields saw a...
Bilal Hafeez
US bond yields saw a 3+ standard-deviation jump last week, while tech stocks got smashed with NASDAQ seeing a 1.9 standard deviation...
Bilal Hafeez
Last week saw big positive moves. Apply share prices saw a 3+ standard-deviation weekly jump. The overall S&P500, US high yield credit...
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