Matthew Tibble
Summary The Fed has r-star around 0.5% in real terms, but markets are pricing it around 2%. We think this could be a return to the pre-GFC ‘normal’. US disinflation could be entering its ‘last mile’ phase, implying slower price increases ahead. Asian trade data corroborates the recent pick-up in global manufacturing, but a lack […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Global oil demand is set to grow by 1.2mn b/d in 2024, led by growth of 1.3mn b/d in non-OECD countries and offset by a small decline in OECD nations. Chinese oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.6mn b/d, while Indian demand grows by 0.2mn b/d. Meanwhile, OECD Europe could see growth decline […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Global oil supply is set to increase by 0.9mn b/d in 2024. Non-OPEC members such as the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will drive much of this increase. Within OPEC, we expect Nigeria and Iran to continue increasing supply this year. Finally, demand risks should prevent OPEC+ from unwinding its supply cuts. Market Implications […]
Viresh Kanabar
You might think the OPEC+ cartel is growing stronger. After all, it recently welcomed Brazil as its latest member. With current crude and liquids production of around 4.4 million b/d, the country will be the fourth-largest member of the extended group after Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. But the addition of Brazil masks a very […]
Viresh Kanabar
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content. Latest Updates FX, Rates, and Commodities: Beware MoF intervention when selling JPY […]
Viresh Kanabar
Our views on the major asset classes remain the same. We’re slightly more positive on the FTSE 100 given this environment of rising rates at the long end.
Matthew Tibble
US equities exhibit strong seasonal patterns. Q4 typically sees stocks rally, especially over October and November.
Viresh Kanabar
Our views on the major asset classes remain the same. We’re slightly more positive on the FTSE 100 given this environment of rising rates at the long end.
Matthew Tibble
Summary Investors are in risk aversion mode due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, but the dollar may not benefit. September’s bumper NFP print is likely an outlier. CHF bearishness is building among real money and hedge funds. Despite suggestions otherwise, US and EU gasoline demand remains robust. Is Risk Aversion Good for the Dollar? It’s Complicated… […]
Viresh Kanabar
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Vasileios Gkionakis
Oil prices are soaring, with Brent crude up nearly 30% this quarter. The supply side is driving the rise, increasing the risk of significant deterioration in global activity and upside to inflation.
Viresh Kanabar
This month we took a deeper look into private markets, where we have been bearish for most of this year.
Viresh Kanabar
This month we took a deeper look into private markets, where we have been bearish for most of this year.
Jon Caplis
The PivotalPath Composite Index returned 1.1% in July as optimism around inflation, a soft landing and indication that the Fed was nearing the end of its interest rate hiking cycle propelled risk markets higher. The S&P 500 Index (S&P) and Nasdaq Index (Nasdaq) rose in July 3.2% and 4.1% respectively.
Viresh Kanabar
Bullish EUR/USD to 1.13 (2 August, Richard Jones). Bullish CAD as oil rebounds (27 July, Macro Hive, CME). Oil is well supported at $80 on Brent (2 August, Viresh Kanabar).
Jon Caplis
The PivotalPath Composite Index returned 1.6% in June as the US debt ceiling was resolved early in the month and there was optimism around a soft landing and the end of the Fed hiking cycle.
Viresh Kanabar
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Viresh Kanabar
We are neutral on crude as industrial demand is slowing. However, OPEC+ production cuts are beginning to tighten the physical market.
Viresh Kanabar
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
At Macro Hive, we offer cutting-edge insights into commodity investing to keep you ahead of the market. Our commodity investment analysis primarily covers energy, metals, and food. Specifically, we research oil, gold, natural gas, iron ore, copper, wheat and other foods, agricultural products and related indices such as the Baltic Dry Index.
The commodities market can be an important way to diversify your portfolio beyond traditional securities. However, commodities can be risky as supply and demand can fluctuate significantly according to uncertainties that are hard or impossible to predict (such as weather, disease, geopolitics, and natural disasters).
Though once largely limited to professional investors, commodity markets today are more accessible. There are many ways to invest in commodity markets including futures contracts and options. There are also a wide variety of commodity stocks, and you can access some of the best commodity stocks via exchange-traded funds. A commodity stock ETF offers exposure to macro commodity market trends while minimizing the risk associated with individual company fundamentals.
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