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Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda

Bilal Hafeez

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast we discuss:

  1. China Watch: Domestic Demand Slows Further Despite Supporting Measures

    Liang Ding

    Summary August data shows broad-based weakening of domestic demand. The acceleration of government borrowing and supporting measures for the housing market and private consumption are yet to show a positive effect on sentiment and spending. Increasing high-tech production failed to offset the decline in traditional sectors. The supply-side data indicates 4.9% YTD GDP growth, down […]

  2. China Growth Tracker: Lockdown Lows

    Mirza Baig, Liang Ding

    Summary We revised our forecast for aggregated demand growth in August from 6.4% to 4.4% with the updated car sales data. Despite the upgraded trade-in program for the cars, car sales in August increased only 0.4% on a YoY base. Construction activities stayed weak in September with cement production down 1% on a YoY base. […]

  3. Ep. 228: Liang Ding on China’s Economy and Markets

    Bilal Hafeez

    Liang is a markets professional, with 20 years’ experience as a portfolio manager, quantitative analyst, currency strategist, and China economist. He has spent most of his career based in Germany, where he earned his PhD and worked at several asset managers including DWS.

  1. Ep. 222: Boris Vladimirov on US Exceptionalism, Europe Risks and China Weakness

    Bilal Hafeez

    Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs.

  2. Key Events: First the Fed Then Blowout Payrolls, What’s Next?

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary January services PMI to show increase relative to December. Household credit data to show recovery in mortgage borrowing. Market Implications After Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a March cut was not his base case, I no longer expect a cut. Fed As […]

  3. Key Events: Fed to Prepare Market for March Cut

    5 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary  Fed to prepare markets for March rate cut.  NFP to show continued labour market tightness.  Market Implications  Higher than I expected core PCE makes a 25bp cut marginally more likely than a 50bp cut at the March FOMC (my revised probabilities are 45% […]

Key Events: It’s PCE Week, Will This Lead Us Down a Path to a 50 Point Cut?

5 researchers

Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Core PCE to fall further away from the Fed’s 2% target. Q4 GDP could surprise on the upside but is likely to remain close to 2% trend. Market Implications I am still expecting, on balance, a 50bp cut at the March FOMC meeting, […]

Key Events: Market Starting to Move Our Way on Another Non-Consensus Call

5 researchers

Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Retail sales could surprise on the upside. Import prices could start showing the impact of higher shipping costs. Market Implications Still expect a 50bp cut at the March FOMC meeting. Fed The CPI lowered my odds of a 50bp cut in March but […]

  1. Key Events: Fed Worried by Return to Lowflation

    4 researchers

    Jump to: US | Europe | Emerging Markets US Summary CPI to show continued disinflation. Small business survey to show resilient growth trends. Fed The Fed December FOMC marked a deep change in policy bias, and I have changed my Fed view accordingly. The Fed now seeks to ease to support growth and asset prices, and […]

  2. Ep. 196: Rerelease: Niall Ferguson on Cold War 2, Middle East Conflict and Woke Students 

    Bilal Hafeez

    This podcast was recorded in March 2023. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History.

  3. Ep. 194: Liang Ding on Can China Avoid a Hard Landing

    Bilal Hafeez

    Liang is currently based in Shanghai and has close to twenty years of market experience as a currency strategist, China economist, portfolio manager, and quant analyst.

Key Events: Labour Market Defies Waller

5 researchers

Jump to: US | Europe | $-Bloc | Emerging Markets US Summary Fed on hold, markets unlikely to heed guidance on more rate hikes still possible. Downside risks to core CPI. Fed The Fed has already announced it would stay on hold, which I think reflects that disinflation has happened faster than expected in the […]

2024 Grey Swan: China Turns to the West

John Tierney

We are a week into December, and the holidays are tantalizingly close. Many people use this time to reflect on the year just gone. But for this Grey Swan, I want to fast-forward to December 2024. Imagine what we could be looking back on then… China’s Recovery Never Happened Entering 2Q 2024, it was becoming […]

  1. Key Events: Wage Growth or Trump 2.0? 

    5 researchers

    This week’s most interesting comment was from Bostic (non-voter, dove) who said that he was not in a rush to either hike or cut and was expecting only one cut next year, towards end-year. The comment suggests the doves are starting to realize that inflation could be stickier than they initially expected.

  2. Key Events: Why the Shutdown May Drag On! 

    5 researchers

    There was some disappointment that Powell did not discuss the tightening of financial conditions at this week Fed listens event.  Imho this reflects that the Fed put is unintentional. 

  3. Charts of the Week: BoE Forecast Revisions, Oil Pullback, Softer CHF

    Matthew Tibble

    The BoE’s recent suggestion that ONS wage growth data was inaccurate implies a dovish revision of the bank’s inflation forecasts. The USD/JPY rally may be smaller than previous ones. 

Key Events: GDP Revisions to Support the Hawks, Watch Out!

5 researchers

The outcome of the FOMC meeting was in line with my expectations: the Fed stayed on hold, kept an extra 2023 hike, reduced the number of 2024 cuts to two from previously four, kept the inflation trajectory unchanged but upgraded the growth trajectory.

Charts of the Week: Contrarian China View, Oil Over $100, and US GDP at Trend

Matthew Tibble

The contrarian trade is to be bullish China, but we find good reason to remain on the sidelines. Oil could hit $100/bbl, but we would fade any move higher.

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