
BoJ Disappoints, Watch Inflation Pulse
Bilal Hafeez
The BoJ disappointed the hawks. Japan 10Y yields are modestly lower, and both the yen and Nikkei are down 0.5%. This fits into our view of BoJ inaction.
Bilal Hafeez
The BoJ disappointed the hawks. Japan 10Y yields are modestly lower, and both the yen and Nikkei are down 0.5%. This fits into our view of BoJ inaction.
Richard Jones
UK economic data, most notably inflation and employment readings, have soured recently.
Richard Jones
Democrats and Republicans have been unable to reach a deal after extensive debt-ceiling and budget negotiations.
Richard Jones
The outsized volatility in G10 rates markets from February and March has abated.
Richard Jones
The Japanese yen (JPY), long seen as a haven, is the second-worst-performing G10 currency this year, down about 2.5% against the US dollar (USD).
Bilal Hafeez
India’s economy looks set to keep growing robustly, largely due to population growth and digitalisation. But potential headwinds include a proportionally smaller working-age population, declining female labour participation, a small, low-skilled manufacturing base, and a lack of integration in global supply chains.
Henry Occleston
January BoJ forecasts pointed to a slower recovery (albeit still above potential growth rate), but a higher pace of inflation in the near-term (table above).
Bilal Hafeez
Asia is the only region expected to see growth accelerate in 2023. It will likely sink in the US, Western Europe and EMEA from 2022 levels.
Dalvir Mandara
We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike 25bp (alongside consensus) and Chair Jerome Powell to address questions on possible cuts this year.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Global departures sit at 103,000 per day, a touch lower than last week, but a level comparable to 2019 and just shy of the levels they were before Covid-19 struck in 2020 (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Global departures sit at 104,000 per day, a level comparable to 2019, but shy of the levels they were before Covid-19 struck in 2020 (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez, Henry Occleston
The BoJ surprised the market with a widening of its yield curve control band (YCC) in December. As we previously warned, indicators of market stress point towards another imminent adjustment. We lean towards a move to +-1%.
Jon Turek
Something bigger than just yield curve control (YCC) timing is going on in Japan. Something is changing, something potentially significant.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
To give a taste of how each team (and their country) will fare, we’ve asked our network for their views. We’ve asked people the following questions...
Bilal Hafeez
Many were looking for China’s 20th National Congress to mark the end of China’s zero-COVID policy (ZCP).
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new Journal of Economic Modelling paper develops a real-time monitoring system of macroeconomic prosperity, which it applies to China.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new NBER working paper, co-authored by prominent economist Ken Rogoff, highlights long-term imbalances in China’s real estate market.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Japan has been contending with deflation and implementing quantitative easing (QE) since the 1990s, well before other advanced economies...
Bilal Hafeez
In this report, we standardise price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons...
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