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  1. G10 FX Weekly: GBP Set for Downside in 2H 2023

    Richard Jones

    UK economic data, most notably inflation and employment readings, have soured recently.

  2. G10 FX Weekly: Four Trades for a Debt Ceiling Impasse

    Richard Jones

    Democrats and Republicans have been unable to reach a deal after extensive debt-ceiling and budget negotiations.

  3. G10 FX Weekly: Where the Fed Goes, Its Peers Will Follow

    Richard Jones

    The outsized volatility in G10 rates markets from February and March has abated.

  1. G10 FX Weekly: 5 Trades for a JPY Revival

    Richard Jones

    The Japanese yen (JPY), long seen as a haven, is the second-worst-performing G10 currency this year, down about 2.5% against the US dollar (USD).

  2. Four Major Challenges to India’s Economic Growth

    Bilal Hafeez

    India’s economy looks set to keep growing robustly, largely due to population growth and digitalisation. But potential headwinds include a proportionally smaller working-age population, declining female labour participation, a small, low-skilled manufacturing base, and a lack of integration in global supply chains.

  3. Monitoring the BoJ: Focus on Wages

    Henry Occleston

    January BoJ forecasts pointed to a slower recovery (albeit still above potential growth rate), but a higher pace of inflation in the near-term (table above).

Why Asia Will Dominate in 2023

Bilal Hafeez

Asia is the only region expected to see growth accelerate in 2023. It will likely sink in the US, Western Europe and EMEA from 2022 levels.

US, Europe, or Asia – Who is Most Bullish Bitcoin?

Dalvir Mandara

We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike 25bp (alongside consensus) and Chair Jerome Powell to address questions on possible cuts this year.

  1. China Reopening Boosted by Tourist Groups

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Global departures sit at 103,000 per day, a touch lower than last week, but a level comparable to 2019 and just shy of the levels they were before Covid-19 struck in 2020 (Chart 1).

  2. Tourist Numbers Sluggish Despite China Reopening

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    Global departures sit at 104,000 per day, a level comparable to 2019, but shy of the levels they were before Covid-19 struck in 2020 (Chart 1).

  3. Monitoring the BoJ: Further YCC Widening Imminent

    Bilal Hafeez, Henry Occleston

    The BoJ surprised the market with a widening of its yield curve control band (YCC) in December. As we previously warned, indicators of market stress point towards another imminent adjustment. We lean towards a move to +-1%.

Grey Swan #5: Japan Hikes Rates

Jon Turek

Something bigger than just yield curve control (YCC) timing is going on in Japan. Something is changing, something potentially significant.

The Hive World Cup Survey

Sam van de Schootbrugge

To give a taste of how each team (and their country) will fare, we’ve asked our network for their views. We’ve asked people the following questions...

  1. Is China Worried About Taiwan’s COVID Strategy?

    Bilal Hafeez

    Many were looking for China’s 20th National Congress to mark the end of China’s zero-COVID policy (ZCP).

  2. A New Real-Time Tool for Tracking China Growth

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    A new Journal of Economic Modelling paper develops a real-time monitoring system of macroeconomic prosperity, which it applies to China.

  3. Will China’s Real Estate Market Crash?

    Sam van de Schootbrugge

    A new NBER working paper, co-authored by prominent economist Ken Rogoff, highlights long-term imbalances in China’s real estate market.

2022 Grey Swan #10: BOJ becomes the People’s ATM

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Japan has been contending with deflation and implementing quantitative easing (QE) since the 1990s, well before other advanced economies...

Markets to Watch This Week: US Rates and Chinese Yuan

Bilal Hafeez

In this report, we standardise price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons...

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