This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Will Russia’s Constitutional Changes Allow Putin to Hold on to Power? (CFR, 4 min read) Putin’s constitutional amendments have made him more powerful than ever. But the COVID crisis, lower energy prices and young people losing interest (indicated by poll numbers) could imply Putin’s party, United Russia, may have a hard time securing parliament majority in next year’s election. If these trends go on, Putin’s 2024 election campaign could become challenging as well.
Post-Brexit Trade Deal Still Possible Despite Rollercoaster Talks (ING, 6 min read) UK-EU talks ended a day early but ING is confident a deal is still forthcoming. However, they remained concerned about business preparedness after the transition period. ING estimates 240,000 firms in the UK only export to the EU, and many of the SMEs have thin margins and cannot deal with the additional costs associated with customs clearance, transport costs and tariffs (if no deal happens). [Bearish UK]
After the Liberal International Order (Project Syndicate, 7 min read) If Biden gets elected, he should not try to restore US-led international order; instead, he should strengthen rules-based international institutions (i.e. UNSC). It is only through these that we can promote democracy and human rights and solve the challenges of climate change, pandemics, cyber-attacks and terrorism. Another dilemma for Biden will be to find a way for the US and China to cooperate in delivering global public goods while competing for global power.