This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
The Economic Consequences of the Coronavirus (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) Information sharing could be a more effective and less damaging way to contain the spread of the coronavirus rather than large-scale quarantines. Monetary and fiscal stimulus can also help to limit the hit to the economy.
Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing (Federal Reserve, 42 page read) EM commodity exporters are most effected by a China slowdown with the estimated hit to growth three-quarters of that to China. This drops to a half for other EMs and one-third for advanced economies ex US. With low direct financial linkages, a less open economy and more space for accommodative monetary policy the impact on the US economy is more contained.
Is Political Change Coming to China? (Project Syndicate, 5 min read) Regime collapse, leadership change or an internal power shift are three possible scenarios from the Communist party’s mishandling of the coronavirus. Retaining the status quo seems unlikely with the perception that censorship costs lives.