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Did Trump’s Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? (Blanchard, Bown, Chor) Academics find trade war accounted for one-tenth of the observed nation-wide decline in Republican House candidates’ vote share between 2016 and 2018. Largely driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products.
The 7 Ways Impeachment Could Shape The 2020 Election(Fivethirtyeight) Things could go in a number of directions – Trump could lose everything, but outcomes can also lead to utter chaos and destruction for the Democrats.
Can the Conservative Party Win in the North of England? (The Conversation) The Conservative’s strategy of appealing to the “Workington Man” in North England oversees the demographic complexity of this region and may not be as effective in the face of the upcoming UK election. [Bearish GBP]
We Are Finally Getting Better at Predicting Organized Conflict (MIT Technology Review) Shows the anatomy of “conflict models” and how it computes a “risk score” to assess the probability of social conflicts in a region. Such models successfully forecast the September 2018 conflicts in Ethiopia.