This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Is China a Safe Haven? (Matthews Asia, 8 min read) Space for significant further stimulus and a strong structural position (including high savings) going into the coronavirus crisis suggests the economy should be able to bounce back once the virus is fully eliminated. The country’s domestic-demand driven growth model should mean a global recession does not overly restrain China’s recovery.
Blunting the Impact and Hard Choices: Early Lessons from China (IMF, 3 min read) Policy support to counteract the coronavirus needs specific measures for the most vulnerable through, say, waiving utility bills and social security payments. Other measures such as credit extension are also valuable but can heighten financial stability risks and reduce productivity further down the line if not well targeted.
Chinese Factories Face New Threat: US Anti-virus Controls (AP News, 4 min read) Containment measures in the US could threaten the Chinese economic recovery as plummeting demand leads to reduced need for manufactured components from China.