This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Entangled US-China-Taiwan Relations Likely Just Got More Complicated After President Tsai Ing-wen’s Big Re-election Victory (SCMP, 2 min read) Saturday’s landslide re-election of Tsai Ing-wen as Taiwanese President will add uncertainty to the US-China relationship and could see Beijing attempting to gain concessions through trade policy. [Bearish US-China]
Political Uncertainty, Market Anomalies and Presidential Honeymoons (Journal of Banking and Finance, 23 pages read) Presidents are usually highly inclined to stamp their own mark in the office at the start of a new term, raising market uncertainty and risk aversion. The authors find robust links with spikes in risk measures during these honeymoon periods but have a hard time aligning political uncertainty with overall equity returns.