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CEOs Still Consider Recession to be the Biggest Business Risk in 2020 (CNBC, 3 min read) Corporate CEOs for the second year in a row cite recession as their biggest worry amid “continued uncertainty around global trade, increasing competition, global political instability and tightening labour markets”. [Bearish equities]
Will Recession Strike in 2020? (The Dangerous Economist, 3 min read) Studies the reliability of the US Conference Board’s LEI indicators in predicting recessions or stock market corrections. Good news is that it did predict the past eight recessions, but the lead time was often as high as 18 months. Plus there were many false signals. [Bullish equities]
Can Latin America Avoid Another Lost Decade? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) The region has faced a multitude of problems, both from an unfavourable global environment and domestic factors resulting in anaemic growth in the past five years. The region can nevertheless foster re-industrialization and invest in science and technology, together with active social policies to help regain economic footing. [Bearish Latam]