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The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on US Investment (NBER, 31-page read) US-China tariff movements between 2018 and 2019 will reduce the investment growth of listed US companies by 1.9pp by the end of 2020 primarily via the stock market channel. Lower stock market returns lower the return to capital and, as a result, the investment rate.
Attention to the tail(s): global financial conditions and exchange rate risks (ECB, 20 pages) Currency portfolios classified on the basis of macro risk factors (i.e. current account balance) had a higher likelihood of substantial losses in response to a tightening of global financial conditions (rising interest rate).