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NATO Is Dying (Project Syndicate, 7 min read)Ex foreign minister of Spain Ana Palacio believes that without US leadership NATO may disintegrate. She says Trump’s withdrawal of US forces from Germany signalled that European security is not a US priority, and that the Franco-Turkish spat at a similar time might not have been a coincidence. She also argues that the US drifting away from Europe has been happening for a decade, and Trump only accelerated the process. [Bullish Russia]
Why Does Globalisation Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism (NBER, 24 page read) An empirical analysis of the 2016 US presidential election shows globalisation-related attitudinal variables were important correlates of the switch to Trump. This paper also discusses how trade, financial globalisation and immigration can stimulate populism.
Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in EU and US (IMF, 11 page read) Using high-frequency indicators, this paper examines the early phase economic impacts of COVID-19 in Europe and the US. They find that states and countries with larger outbreaks suffered larger losses, and heterogeneity in those losses were captured mainly by changes in people’s mobility.