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Revisiting the White Swans of 2020 (Project Syndicate, 7 min read) Nouriel Roubini re-states major risks for 2020. These include: Russia using cyber warfare to interfere in the US election, the US-China cold war turning hot, tensions between Iran and Israel as a Biden presidency revives the 2015 nuclear deal, and sanctions by Trump to seize and freeze China’s Treasury holdings. [Bearish equities, bullish bonds]
Postpone the Election? That Could Mean President Biden (Politico, 6 min read) A provocative read. In the absence of an election, Trump’s presidency would end on 20 January 2021. By statute, the person next in line would be the House speaker, but without an election, the term of every member of the House of Representatives will end on 3 January. Now, this could imply (in theory) that the Democrats who control the Senate can elect whoever they want, and Joe Biden becomes president.