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NBER: February 2020 Was Peak in US Economic Activity (Calculated Risk, 2 min read) Ashort, sharp economic contraction may avoid the technical definition of recession but it will not avoid being classified as a recession by the NBER’s business cycle dating committee.
The Recession Is Over (Advisor Perspectives, 2 min read) A declining unemployment rate (no matter the exact definition) and improving tax receipts point to the US economy bottoming out. And with monetary policy set to remain extremely expansionary and profits likely to recover, the S&P is set for further gains. [Bullish equites]
COVID-19 Doesn’t Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs: The Effect of Local Outbreaks in Korea (NBER, 20 page read) A 1 per 1000 increase in infections translated into a 2-3% drop in local employment in Korea, versus 5-6% in the US and UK, with mass testing and contact tracing used rather than lockdowns. Even when lockdowns are lifted, job losses will not be fully prevented if infections are still rising. [Bearish growth]