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Slouching Towards a Producer-led Recession? (Seeking Alpha) The often ignored US Senior Loan Officer Survey is showing contracting demand for commercial loans in Q3. Typically such dynamics are seen before recessions. [Bearish equities]
A Yellow Flag from Temporary Hiring (Angry Bear) Temporary hiring in the US is now showing a 7% y/y decline as of November. Only in 2007-2008 have we seen a worse number. This could be a harbinger of negative payrolls. [Bearish equities]
Does Intergenerational Mobility Increase Corporate Profits? (Fed Working Papers) Fed finds that companies based in areas with high intergenerational mobility move up and tend to see greater profitability. This likely reflects greater equality of opportunity.
Trade Restrictions Among G20 Economies Remain at Historic Highs (WTO) Latest WTO report for G20 economies finds that from mid-May to mid-October 2019 new import-restrictive measures covering USD 460.4 billion worth of traded goods were introduced. This represents a 37% surge over the previous period. [Bearish global companies]