More 2020 outlooks. Most are bullish on risk with the usual caveats of trade war escalation. Some are even suggesting assets to buy if a recession materialises.

There’s Always a Bear Market Somewhere (A Wealth of Common Sense, 4 min read) Three areas of the market that have been left behind during the current bull market:  energy stocks (ticker: XLE) have fallen 13% versus the overall S&P gain of 200%, precious metals & mining stocks, VGPMX is down 50% and value stocks. Excluding the tech bubble, valuations of value strategy are at their cheapest levels ever. [Bullish energy, value and precious metal/mining]

What to Watch in 2020 (Advisor Perspectives, 5 min read) Lazard analysts expect slow growth, but no recession. Their base case view is to expect the US 10-year yield to be in a 1.25%−2.25% range, though 2.25% could be breached if the US-China trade situation is resolved.  US and Europe ex-UK stocks are expensive to trend, while rest of the world is around trend. [Bullish global equity, bearish US and EU, neutral UK]

Investing in an Economic Downturn (Advisor Perspectives, 5 min Read) Investing in real estate debt investments may be a lucrative way to invest during contractionary periods. These funds locate distressed real estate assets that are in the process of getting foreclosed but which have strong ARVs (After Repair Value), allowing the buyer to benefit from a tremendous upside once the management and economic conditions are improved. [Bullish distressed real estate]

The Safety Premium of Safe Assets (San Francisco Fed, 21 Pages) Fed academic research tried to find out whether safe-haven assets have a premium for their safety or for their liquidity. Using Swiss Confederate bonds which are extremely safe but not particularly liquid, they find such assets have a significant safety premium. Therefore, safe-haven premiums are not just due to liquidity. [Bullish safe haven assets]