This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Has the World Economy Reached Peak Growth? (Project Syndicate, 3 mins read) Former Goldmans guru Jim O’Neill argues the 2020s will need a productivity miracle to offset the ageing population in China and the West. India has the greatest potential to influence global growth in the 2020s due to its relatively young population. But current government policies are far from supportive. [Bearish global equities]
The Sahm Rule and Recessions (The Dangerous Economist, 3 mins read) Claudia Sahm’s rule defines predicts recession based on the three-month average unemployment rate rising half a percentage point or more above its low during the previous 12 months. With no false positives and more timely predictions than other recession indicators, it’s well worth using.
The United States is Starved for Talent (NBER, 40 pages) Winning the lottery for a high skilled H1-B visa significantly improves a tech start-up’s likelihood of attracting venture capital funding. Shows access to the best talent in the world is an edge for the US.