This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Evaluating International Impacts of China-Specific Shocks in an Input-Output Framework (Bank of Finland) Thorough working paper that estimates impact of China slowdown or trade war on the growth of key countries. On growth, Korea, Australia and Germany are most sensitive.
We Can’t Secure 5G Networks by Banning Huawei Gear (Defense One) 5G network are based widely-distributed software-define digital routing and small-cell antennas. This means any part of the network, including Internet of Things (smart fridges) could be infiltrate the system. US government needs to partner with business on this – otherwise US networks will be vulnerable.
Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data (San Fran Fed) They find that using other countries import data (Fed’s so-called C-CAT index) can track Chinese growth. Over time, official Chinese GDP has become more accurate, but it still understates the volatility of growth.
A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing” Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses (Chinn and Ito) Argues that relative fiscal policies rather than the savings glut explain global imbalances.