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Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read) Using a “threshold rule” for the unemployment rate provides a good fit with the dates of NBER-defined business cycles. With limited revisions to the unemployment data it also provides a stable and timely gauge of the cycle.
The Accuracy of Long-term Growth Forecasts by Economics Researchers (VoxEU, 4 min read) Real and nominal GDP growth forecasts for Japan show an upward bias over the past 10 year even when excluding the 2008-09 crisis. Government forecasts have a larger upward bias than those made in the private sector.
Subprime Auto Loans Explode, “Serious Delinquencies” Spike to Record. But There’s No Jobs Crisis, These Are the Good Times (Wolf Street, 4 min read) Nearly one quarter of all subprime auto loans are more than 90 days overdue, yet delinquencies on prime auto loans are at historic lows. The divergence reflects aggressive subprime lending and investor demand for high yielding auto loan ABS.