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Forecasting Recoveries is Difficult: Evidence from Past Recessions (VoxEu, 6 min read) Forecasters have little ability to predict whether a recession will end in a rebound or continue for another year.
What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data (Chicago FED, 34-page read) The 1918 pandemic caused a mild recession from which the economy rebounded quickly (V-shaped). Output was affected mainly through a negative labour supply shock, demand picked up quickly, and there was little damage done to the balance sheets of both the nonfinancial and financial sector.