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Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter? (NBER, 26 page read) It doesn’t, really, when it comes to world growth. Yet the paper does find that commodity super cycles do exist.
The Trump Record on Unemployment (CEPR, 2 min read) A short piece that argues that the improvement in employment under Trump was a continuation of the trend from the Obama years.
Brazil: Will This Emerging Market Ever Emerge? (Aberdeen Standard Investments, 5 min read) The large asset manager paints a bearish picture on Brazil. The list of reasons is long and includes slower global trade, lower commodity prices, corruption, political malfeasance, and supply weakness caused by inadequate public investment. [Bearish Brazil]