This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
Is a China-US ‘Rivalry Partnership’ Possible? (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) The chief economic adviser at Allianz, Mohamed El-Erian, believes Sino-American escalation could have adverse implication for ‘dual option’ countries like Singapore and Australia (who have strong security links with the US but strong economic ties with China). This aspect of foreign policy is where the government will find themselves unprepared. [Bearish Australia and Singapore]
Why Black Lives Matter Could Put Biden in the White House (Schroders, 5 min read) Black voters are a primary demographic for the election, making up 13% of the US electorate. For example, a 7% increase in black voter turnout across all states would make a change in the outcome of the election. ‘Trump won by such a narrow margin in key swing states that a 7% rise in turnout in each state would flip Pennsylvania and Michigan to Democrat – 36 electoral college votes – costing Trump his majority.’ [Bearish Trump]