This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.
The Great Lockdown through a Global Lens (IMF Blog, 5 min read) Gita Gopinath highlights COVID’s protracted impact on the service sector as making this crisis very different to the earlier manufacturing-led downturns. Pent up demand could lead to a quicker recovery, but this is far from guaranteed given consumers may want to avoid social interaction. The Fund also expects lower inflation and inflation expectations. [Bearish Global Growth]
Covid-19 and Brexit: Contrasting Sectoral Impacts on the UK (VoxEu, 9 min read) ‘Analysing real-time business survey data from the UK, this column shows that sectoral impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit are very different. Sectors that have suffered less during the lockdown are the ones that are exposed to bigger negative impacts from Brexit [i.e. Agriculture, Manufacturing]’ [Bearish UK Growth]
Chicago Fed: ‘Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased Substantially in May’(Advisor Perspectives, 3 min read) The National Activity Index (a composite of 85 monthly indicators) climbed +2.61 in May from –17.89 in April. This positive growth indicates above-average growth from its historical trend (zero value implies a historical average) in the US. [Bullish US Growth]