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The Rise and Fall of International Currencies (Project Syndicate, 8 min read) Two new books, Currency Stagecraft and How Global Currencies Work, offer insights into the history, politics and economics of global currencies. Both see ending dollar dominance as a much-needed and inevitable outcome.
Do Treasury Term Premia Rise Around Monetary Tightenings? (Liberty Street Economics, 5 min read) There is no evidence that term premia increase sharply when the Fed shifts to a tightening cycle with rising LT rates instead attributable to upwardly revised expectations for ST rates. But a consideration going forward is that expectations over the Fed’s balance sheet policy will impact term premia.