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A New Indicator of Bank Funding Cost (BIS, 24-page read)Rollover risk is usually measured by the spot IBOR-OIS spread, to estimate expected funding stress- forward IBOR-OIS spreads (FFS) can be constructed. FFS are better predictors of economic and banking activity than alternative spreads on rollover risk and credit risk.
Navigating the Pandemic Trilemma (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) Pandemic has revealed a trilemma: it is impossible to have a medically healthy society, a healthy economy, and a healthy democracy at the same time. In the real world (unlike theory), these trade-offs are not absolute; rather negotiable. For example, widespread testing and contact tracing entails a partial loss of privacy but would be acceptable to save lives.
What Does this Economist Think of Epidemiologists? (Marginal Revolution,4 min read) Epidemiologists fail to account for: long-run elasticities of adjustment ( in the long run you learn which methods of social distance protect you the most), public choice considerations (policy moves from impatient politicians), Lucas critique (agents within a model, knowing the model, will change their behavior) and selection bias (early models were calibrated from Italy data hence more pessimistic).