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The Bubble in Phony Bubble Calls (EconLib) Scott Sumner claims bubbles don’t exist yet there are constant ungrounded warnings of them across the media. Canada’s housing market never crashed despite years of scary headlines. [Bullish stocks]
Extreme Risks 2019 (Thinking Ahead Institute) Comprehensive report that lists 30 extreme risks ranging from anarchy to hyperinflation to tech singularity. [Bullish volatility]
Year-End Fixed Income Survey 2019 (Russell Investments) Survey of fund managers finds that bond managers expect only one more Fed cut, while credit managers fear a US recession and FX managers are bearish euro [Bullish rates, bearish credit]
The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns (Davis, Taylor) Credit boom periods tend to be followed by equity return underperformance in the near future, thus credit growth signals can be useful input in asset allocation. [Bearish equities]