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Predictable Financial Crises (NBER, 32 page read) Financial crises can be predicted by analysing boom-bust credit cycles. Utilising historical data on post-war financial crises, the paper found that rapid credit and asset growth in the nonfinancial business or household sector results in a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis in the next three years.
The Political Scar of Epidemics (NBER, 33 page read) Generation Z is most likely to lose confidence in political institutions and trust in political leadership during epidemics. The loss in political confidence for residents is more substantial and lasting in democratic countries relative to autocracies.
US Dollar Funding: an International Perspective (BIS, 53 page read) The USD as a global currency results in ‘economies of scale and network effects, which reduce the costs of transferring capital and risks around the financial system. But it can also lead to vulnerabilities, as the resulting interconnectedness can transmit and amplify shocks that emanate from the United States’.
Unmasked! The Effect of Face Masks on the Spread of COVID-19 (VoxEu, 8 min read) Wearing facemasks decreased the growth rate of COVID cases by about 40% in regions of Germany that made wearing a face mask a requirement before other areas adopted this.