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It is Naive to Expect Chinese Economy to Collapse (Global Times, 3 min read) The huge scale of the Chinese economy combined with the fairly rapid resumption of activity in key sectors will ensure the country’s economy retains its competitive edge. The hit will undoubtedly be large but nothing the economy cannot withstand.
China’s Coronavirus Health Crisis is Also a Threat to its Economy (Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2 min read) China’s reduced room for policy stimulus will exacerbate the economic slowdown. The large fiscal deficit prevents any significant fiscal stimulus (tax cuts) similar to that enacted after SARS, while the run-up in borrowing in the past decade also prevents any credit expansion.
Will China’s Growth Rebound This Year (Advisor Perspectives, 4 min read) Growth should rebound later this year but not to the extent witnessed in 2016 as the commitment to deleveraging will remain in place. PMIs, credit data and trade and the three data series to watch for the signs the economy is recovering.