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Too Much Transparency Makes the World More Opaque (Marginal Revolution, 1 min read) Transparency is highly desirable, but at certain times it can prove a double-edged sword. The NY Times latest plan of having all presidential candidate interviews on the record will fail to achieve its intended objectives. We will likely no longer see off-the-record uncomfortable comments.
Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach (Dallas Fed, 24 page read) The authors show improved forecasting accuracy for energy prices several quarters ahead, particularly gas, using a quarterly global VAR dataset for the 33 largest economies. More accurate predictions could have important macro consequences for the world’s energy dependent countries.