• Professor Amber Wichowsky of Marquette University argues that the relationship between elections and the economy is changing.
• Democrats and Republicans now look at the same set of data and interpret it in diametrically opposed ways, overturning conventional wisdom that the economy dictates election outcomes.
• Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, then shows that just three key states have the capacity to swing the election’s outcome.
• He argues that voters are famously short-sighted and the only data that will matter will be the economy’s performance up to 90 days before the election.
Why does this matter? With the US presidential election less than a year away, many are using economic trends to predict the outcome. This podcast says that is futile. Economic data has become partisan – better to watch polling in key states instead. And those currently show Trump leading the pack.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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